Game Analysis

SMU (-4)  25   Louisville  22

Looks like Miller Moss won’t be playing for Louisville this week, which is likely worth a couple of points (although we really have no idea how good or bad Deuce Adams will be). The bigger issue for the Cardinals is the absence of their top two running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, who have combined for 1374 yards at 8.0 yards per run. Duke Watson, who was formerly a good back, has been banged up all season and has averaged only 2.8 ypr on 43 runs and the backs behind him are unrested (122 yards on 23 runs).

Louisville will not be able to run against a good SMU defensive front (I project just 3.6 yards per rushing play) and I don’t expect Adams to be good either, although SMU’s relative defensive weakness is defending the pass (just 0.3 yppp better than average) and I expect the Cardinals to throw the ball more than 40 times in this game. The market is expecting 23 points from Louisville based on the initial line moves after Moss was downgraded (SMU by 4 and 49.5 = 22.75 points) and I’m projecting 22 points.

I still prefer Louisville here, as the Cardinals’ defense is 0.9 yards per play better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team), which is better than SMU’s offense (+0.7 yppl) and I suspect the defense will be playing with a little more passion than normal knowing that the offense is hindered.