Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Louisville (-14)  34   BOSTON COLLEGE  14

I had an easy Best Bet winner going against Boston College last week at Florida State (they lost 14-44) and the same premise exists this week. BC’s horrible offensive line can’t open running lanes (just 3.2 yards per rushing play) and can’t protect the quarterback (15 sacks allowed in 4 games), who is averaging just 5.1 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB. Jurkovec has averaged just 3.3 yppp in two games against better than average pass defenses (Virginia Tech and FSU) and Louisville has yielded just 5.3 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.8 yppp against an average team. The Cardinal have faced two below average passing teams (UCF and USF) and held those teams to just 197 total yards on 69 pass plays (2.9 yppp).

Boston College won’t be able to throw the ball, as Jurkovec will feel the heat from a good Cardinals pass rush (13 sacks in 4 games) and the Eagles aren’t likely to take advantage of a soft Louisville run defense (0.6 yprp worse than average). BC has only averaged more than 3.0 yards per rushing play in one game and that was for just 4.3 yprp against FCS team Maine, who has a horrible run defense.

Boston College doesn’t have a good defense to keep them in games against better teams, as the Eagles have surrendered 5.8 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team and they gave up 8.6 yppl to FSU, the only better than average offense that they’ve faced. Louisville hasn’t been as good offensively this season as they’ve been the last couple of years with Malik Cunningham at quarterback but they are still averaging 6.4 yppl (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and should move the ball well in this game while enjoying good field position.

Louisville is a Strong Opinion at -14 -115 odds or better.