Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Louisiana Tech (+4.5)  37   Southern Methodist  36

Louisiana Tech is a below average offensive team with a bad defense but the Bulldogs have some advantages in this game against an SMU team that is among the worst defensive teams in the nation and will be missing their best defensive player, CB Jordan Wyatt. Wyatt led the Mustangs with 4 interceptions (2 returned for touchdowns) and 12 passes defended in 11 games. SMU’s pass defense is horrible even with Wyatt, as the Mustangs allowed 8.3 yards per pass play to FBS quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average defense. In the one prior game that Wyatt missed a below average Connecticut aerial attack connected on 22 of 28 passes for 408 yards. Louisiana Tech quarterback J’Mar Smith is well below average (6.3 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB) but he should have a really good game here while the Louisiana Tech ground game (5.4 yard per rushing play) churns out chunks of yards on the ground against a soft SMU defensive front that has yielded 6.3 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defense. Louisiana Tech is projected to run for 245 yards at 6.3 yprp while the pass attack generates 261 yards at 8.0 yppp against a horrible SMU secondary without their best player and possibly without leading tackler SS Mikial Onu, who is questionable with a concussion. If Onu were not to play that would probably make the SMU run defense even worse.

SMU is equipped with a really good offense, as the Mustangs have averaged 38.6 points on 495 yards at 6.6 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) and Louisiana Tech’s defense, which rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl vs teams that would average 5.2 yppl), is worse than the average unit the SMU has exploited this season. However, it’s possible that SMU might be without their most explosive offensive player, freshman WR James Proche, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. A tender hamstring is not idea for a big play receiver and the Mustangs would surely be hurt if Proche does not play or is hampered by the tight hamstring if he does try to play. Proche has averaged an incredible 13.4 yard per pass targeted at him and caught 66% of those passes, which is really impressive for a guy averaging 20 yards a catch. The rest of SMU’s receivers combine for 8.2 yards per target, so it wouldn’t be easy to replace Proche in the offense. If Proche plays and is 100% (unlikely) then I’d project 507 yards at 7.0 yppl for SMU in this game. If he doesn’t play at all then I’d project 488 yards at 6.7 yppl for the Mustangs.

This is an odd situation for SMU, as new head coach Sonny Dykes, is going to coach the team in this bowl game. I doubt that Dykes will make any significant changes to a productive offense, but he has never cared about defense before so SMU is the perfect team for him. Louisiana Tech is not as good at SMU but the Mustangs are without their best defensive player and potentially without their most impactful offensive player. Louisiana Tech is a live dog in this game and I’ll consider the Bulldogs a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.