Game Analysis
Lean – Louisiana Tech (+10.5) 18 SAM HOUSTON STATE 24
Sam Houston will get Hunter Watson back behind center this week but the run-oriented Bearkats’ offense doesn’t match up well with a Louisiana Tech defense that defends the run well. The Bulldogs’ new defensive coordinator has had better than average run defenses every season he’s coached for nearly 20 years and Louisiana Tech has allowed just 4.0 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average 4.4 yprp against an average defense).
Louisiana Tech is offensively challenged and Sam Houston has a solid defense but the Bulldogs’ quarterback doesn’t often put the ball in harm’s way, as Bullock has yet to throw an interception on 138 passes and has only had 8 passes broken up against him, which equates to 1.2 projected interceptions.
In addition to some line value and a favorable matchup, Louisiana Tech applies to a 156-85-3 ATS situation that plays on big conference road underdogs in games with low totals.
Louisiana Tech is a Lean at +10 or more.
- Louisiana Tech
- Sam Houston State
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.0
32.3
-
Run Yards
120.1
128.3
-
YPRP
3.9
4.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.4
17.6
-
Pass Att
33.6
30.1
-
Comp %
60.9%
58.3%
-
Pass Yards
252.6
197.0
-
Sacks
3.4
2.0
-
Sack Yards
18.7
12.7
-
Sack %
9.3%
6.2%
-
Pass Plays
37.0
32.1
-
Net Pass Yards
233.9
184.3
-
YPPP
6.3
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
68.0
64.4
-
Total Yards
354.0
312.6
-
YPPL
5.2
4.9
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.3
-
Int %
2.1%
1.0%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.7
1.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
42.6
30.9
-
Run Yards
225.0
143.3
-
YPRP
5.3
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.4
18.5
-
Pass Att
25.4
31.4
-
Comp %
60.6%
59.0%
-
Pass Yards
160.3
198.5
-
Sacks
2.3
2.0
-
Sack Yards
11.1
11.9
-
Sack %
8.1%
6.0%
-
Pass Plays
27.6
33.4
-
Net Pass Yards
149.1
186.6
-
YPPP
5.4
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
70.3
64.3
-
Total Yards
374.1
329.9
-
YPPL
5.3
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.0
-
Int %
3.0%
3.2%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 Nicholls State |
25-17 |
0.0
W
|
38/30 |
121/97 |
3.2/3.2 |
2/1 |
16/10 |
32/26 |
265/103 |
3/0 |
3/7 |
7.6/3.1 |
386/200 |
5.3/3.2 |
| 09/14/24 @ No Carolina St. |
20-30 |
+21.0
W
|
17/35 |
55/154 |
3.2/4.4 |
1/0 |
19/22 |
36/33 |
276/210 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
7.5/6.4 |
331/364 |
6.1/5.4 |
| 09/21/24 Tulsa |
20-23 |
-3.0
L
|
35/29 |
137/116 |
3.9/4.0 |
2/0 |
17/24 |
30/36 |
163/217 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
4.7/5.9 |
300/333 |
4.3/5.0 |
| 09/28/24 @ FIU |
10-17 |
-2.5
L
|
27/30 |
85/117 |
3.1/3.9 |
1/1 |
26/18 |
37/32 |
205/200 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
5.3/5.7 |
290/317 |
4.4/4.9 |
| 10/10/24 Middle Tenn St |
48-21 |
-4.0
W
|
40/18 |
241/83 |
6.0/4.6 |
1/1 |
21/24 |
28/39 |
312/254 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
10.1/6.2 |
553/337 |
7.8/5.7 |
| 10/15/24 @ New Mexico St. |
30-33 |
-11.5
L
|
37/38 |
162/160 |
4.4/4.2 |
0/2 |
22/15 |
41/29 |
190/204 |
0/0 |
6/0 |
4.0/7.0 |
352/364 |
4.2/5.4 |
| 10/22/24 UTEP |
14-10 |
-6.5
L
|
23/46 |
40/171 |
1.7/3.7 |
0/0 |
22/10 |
31/16 |
226/102 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
6.5/6.0 |
266/273 |
4.6/4.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ Rice |
34-14 |
+10.0
W
|
39/16 |
207/62 |
5.3/3.9 |
0/0 |
16/27 |
27/44 |
199/212 |
0/2 |
7/2 |
5.9/4.6 |
406/274 |
5.6/4.4 |
| 09/07/24 @ UCF |
14-45 |
+21.0
L
|
28/55 |
84/397 |
3.0/7.2 |
0/1 |
17/14 |
24/17 |
134/172 |
2/0 |
1/2 |
5.4/9.1 |
218/569 |
4.1/7.7 |
| 09/14/24 Hawaii |
31-13 |
-4.5
W
|
45/19 |
257/74 |
5.7/3.9 |
1/0 |
15/21 |
23/42 |
165/236 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
7.2/5.4 |
422/310 |
6.2/4.9 |
| 09/21/24 New Mexico St. |
31-11 |
-16.0
W
|
52/27 |
294/98 |
5.7/3.6 |
0/1 |
12/14 |
26/29 |
92/69 |
2/2 |
1/1 |
3.4/2.3 |
386/167 |
4.9/2.9 |
| 09/28/24 Texas State |
40-39 |
+9.5
W
|
52/28 |
327/95 |
6.3/3.4 |
1/1 |
10/29 |
19/39 |
70/326 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
3.0/8.4 |
397/421 |
5.3/6.3 |
| 10/03/24 @ UTEP |
41-21 |
-10.5
W
|
49/31 |
311/129 |
6.3/4.2 |
1/2 |
20/15 |
31/29 |
231/193 |
0/2 |
2/3 |
7.0/6.0 |
542/322 |
6.6/5.1 |
| 10/16/24 Western Kentucky |
14-31 |
-2.0
L
|
35/37 |
182/151 |
5.2/4.1 |
1/1 |
19/20 |
32/30 |
226/225 |
1/0 |
3/4 |
6.5/6.6 |
408/376 |
5.8/5.3 |
| 10/22/24 @ FIU |
10-7 |
-5.5
L
|
41/34 |
138/140 |
3.4/4.1 |
0/0 |
14/8 |
21/21 |
76/60 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
3.6/2.6 |
214/200 |
3.5/3.5 |
Louisiana Tech
@ 
Sam Houston State