Louisiana Tech vs

Miami Fla

at Shreveport
Thu, Dec 26
1:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 223
Odds: Miami Fla -6, Total: 50

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Miami-Florida (-6)  31   Louisiana Tech  22

Thursday, December 26 – 1 pm Pacific

Miami has had another disappointing season and the Hurricanes will be missing some key players in this game – but I still favor them to win by more than a touchdown against an overrated Louisiana Tech team even with this game being played about an hour from the Bulldogs’ campus (I gave Louisiana Tech half of a home field advantage).

Louisiana Tech is not as good offensively as their raw numbers suggest, as the 6.3 yards per play and 34.0 points per game was against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.7 yppl and 36.4 points per game to an average FBS offense. The Bulldogs were actually just 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively when excluding the two late-season games that quarterback J’Mar Smith missed and they’re about average as a unit when taking into account how rarely Smith throws interception (just 4 picks this season and 19 in 3 full seasons).

Miami’s defense rates at 0.9 yppl better than average for the season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense) but defensive ends Trevon Hill and Jonathan Garvin are sitting, out along with LB Michael Pinkney, to prepare for the NFL draft (I think they all would be better served playing well in the bowl game given their current low draft rankings). Those 3 combined for 128 tackles, 14.5 sacks, and 16.5 other tackles for loss, which aren’t incredible numbers for 3 supposed NFL-caliber players. LB Shaq Quarterman and Greg Fousseau (14 sacks) are the stars of this defense and they’ll both be playing rather than punking out on their teammates. But, the 3 selfish players not playing are worth a combined 0.4 yppl and 2 points to Miami’s defense based on my algorithm. I project just 331 yards at 5.0 yppl for Louisiana Tech in this game.

Miami’s offense was mediocre from a compensated yards per play perspective this season, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack, and the Hurricanes are hurt by the absence of injured RB DeeJay Davis (115 runs at 6.0 ypr), who was considerably better than the rest of the backs. WR Jeff Thomas, who caught just 31 passes and averaged a modest 8.4 yards per target is also sitting out this game with an injured back (he’s also leaving early for the NFL, which he probably won’t make). He’s worth just 0.2 points. Miami’s quarterback for this game is up in the air, as coach Diaz opened up the competition at the start of bowl practices. Jarren Williams was 0.6 yards per pass play better than N’Kosi Perry even with all the sacks that Williams takes and former Ohio State backup Tate Martell is also now in the mix. Miami’s offense is anywhere from 0.4 yppl worse than average to 0.1 yppl worse than average, depending on who is at quarterback (I just used their overall numbers for the math, adjusted for Davis and Thomas being out).

Louisiana Tech’s defense, like their offense, looks pretty good based on raw stats, as the Bulldogs have allowed just 23.7 points per game on 5.3 yppl. However, they’ve also faced a schedule of teams that would average only 19.0 points and 4.8 yppl against an average FBS defense and now the Bulldogs are without their best defender, CB Amik Robertson. Robertson had 5 interceptions and broke up 16 other passes while registering 8 tackles for loss (excellent for a cornerback) and he’s worth 0.5 yards per pass play and about 1.8 points. Louisiana Tech’s pass defense was terrible with Robertson (6.1 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.1 yppp against an average defense) and whichever Miami quarterback gets the nod should post big numbers in this game. A big part of Miami’s pass game issues was the poor play of their offensive line that has given up 4.3 sacks per game, but Louisiana Tech has a terrible pass rush and now they don’t have their one good defensive back. Miami’s speedy receivers should be open and the Hurricanes’ quarterback should have more time to find them. I really think Williams, who is far more accurate than Perry (62.5% to 54.8% completions) would have an especially good game if he gets the nod to start, as he’s less likely to miss open receivers. Louisiana Tech does have a better than average run defense and Miami is projected to average just 4.8 yprp with Dallas out, but the Hurricanes should move the ball well through the air and I project 438 total yards at 6.6 yards per play for Miami in this game.

Overall the math favors Miami by 11.9 points (52.9 total points) and the absence of Robertson from Louisiana Tech’s defense is worth about the same as all 3 Miami defenders that are sitting out. I’m tempted to make Miami a play here but the Hurricanes are constantly underperforming. This season the Hurricanes lost games straight up as favorites of 14 points (Virginia Tech), 18.5 points (Georgia Tech), 20.5 points (FIU) and 9 points (Duke) and they only beat Central Michigan by 5 points as a 30.5-point favorite (although CMU turned out to be pretty good). On the other hand, Miami was 5-1 ATS this season when they were not favored by more than 7 points so they can certainly play well when they’re interested. The question is how interested are they to be playing this game? I’m sure that the team would like to avoid a losing season but Louisiana Tech is not a brand name opponent that is likely to get their blood flowing. I do know that Louisiana Tech will be excited to be playing in their home state against a big name team and coach Skip Holtz is traditionally good as an underdog (18-8-1 ATS) and good in bowl games (7-3 ATS; 4-1 as a bowl dog). I’ll resist making Miami a play (I was considering them for a Strong Opinion) but I’ll certainly lean with Miami at -7 points or less, as they have far more talent than an overrated Louisiana Tech team that played a very easy schedule and is without their most impactful defender.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Louisiana Tech
  • Miami Fla
LATC
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 31.2 33.1
  • Run Yards 140.7 145.7
  • YPRP 5.0 4.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.0 18.9
  • Pass Att 35.2 32.7
  • Comp % 59.6% 57.9%
  • Pass Yards 247.4 208.1
  • Sacks 2.5 2.8
  • Sack Yards 14.6 15.5
  • Sack % 6.6% 8.0%
  • Pass Plays 37.7 35.5
  • Net Pass Yards 232.8 192.6
  • YPPP 6.2 5.4

Total

  • Total Plays 68.8 68.7
  • Total Yards 388.1 353.8
  • YPPL 5.6 5.2

TO


  • Int 0.6 1.2
  • Int % 1.8% 3.8%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.7
 
  • Points 34.0 23.7
Share This