Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Liberty (-3)  31   OLD DOMINION  19

Lean – Over (42)

I waited until it was clear that talented quarterback Kaidon Salter was healthy enough to play before pulling the trigger on Liberty. I missed grabbing the Flame at a slightly lower number, which disappeared soon after clips of Salter moving well in practice hit the internet. However, the Flames are still a bargain as there is a huge difference between Salter and backup Johnathan Bennett, who played horrible once again last week in a 21-12 win against a pathetic Akron team. That close call has kept this line down but Salter, who has been 0.9 yards per pass play better than average in his 2 ½ games (7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp), is drastically better than Bennett, who has averaged a pathetic 2.8 yards on his 54 pass plays with 4 interceptions thrown. Bennett has dragged down Liberty’s offensive rating but the Flames have been 0.9 yards per play better than average with Salter in the game and that unit has an edge against an Old Dominion defense that’s been 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.4 yppl against an average defense) and should have allowed much more than 24.5 points per game given the 459 total yards per game that that the Monarchs have surrendered.

Liberty also has an advantage when ODU has the ball, as the Monarchs have been 0.7 yppl worse than average while the Flames’ defense has been 0.2 yppl better than average through 4 games and has held three mediocre or worse offensive teams (Southern Miss, UAB and Akron) to an average of just 18 points.

Liberty is a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (-115 odds or better) and 1-Star up to -5. I also lean Over the total, which has dropped a full touchdown from where it opened. The bad weather forecasted is worth -2.0 points and I think the opening number was about right.