(23) Liberty vs

(9) Coastal Carolina

at Orlando
Sat, Dec 26
ESPN
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 283
Odds: Coastal Carolina -7, Total: 59.5

Game Analysis

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Coastal Carolina (-7)  34   Liberty  26

What a great matchup this is. Both Coastal Carolina and Liberty have had magical seasons, as the Chanticleers are unbeaten with wins over good teams Louisiana-Lafayette, Appalachian State and BYU while the Flames have a win at Virginia Tech with their only loss being by just 1 point at NC State.

Liberty is led on offense by former Auburn backup Malik Willis, who has run for over 900 yards at 9 yards a pop and has been better throwing the ball than anticipated, completing 64% of his passes with just 4 interceptions (3 in their one loss to NC State). Liberty’s offense has been 0.3 yards per play better than an average FBS attack (6.7 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) and I project 366 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Flames in this game against a better than average Coastal Carolina defense that given up only 18.5 points per game and 5.5 yppl (to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team).

Coastal Carolina may be the most surprisingly good team in the nation thanks to freshman quarterback Grayson McCall, who has completed 69% of his passes while rating at 2.0 yards per pass play better than average (8.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average FBS QB). McCall can also run the ball effectively (over 500 yards at 6.0 yprp) and the Chanticleers’ run-oriented attack has averaged 36.9 points and 6.6 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team (they’re +0.8 yppl with McCall in the game).

Liberty has been 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense) and the Flames are bad defending the run (0.5 yprp worse than average) and would be worse defensively if #1 tackler (on a per game basis) LB Anthony Butler misses this game (he’s questionable). Coastal’s offense should perform pretty well and I project 430 yards at 7.1 yppl for the Chanticleers. Overall the math favors Coastal Carolina by 8 points. I’ll pass on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Liberty
  • Coastal Carolina
LIB
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 41.8 29.6
  • Run Yards 259.5 139.0
  • YPRP 6.5 5.2




Pass





  • Pass Comp 18.0 15.1
  • Pass Att 28.6 27.8
  • Comp % 62.9% 54.5%
  • Pass Yards 227.9 167.8
  • Sacks 2.3 1.9
  • Sack Yards 13.9 15.4
  • Sack % 7.3% 6.3%
  • Pass Plays 30.9 29.6
  • Net Pass Yards 214.0 152.4
  • YPPP 6.9 5.1

Total

  • Total Plays 72.6 59.3
  • Total Yards 487.4 306.8
  • YPPL 6.7 5.2

TO


  • Int 0.5 0.8
  • Int % 1.7% 2.7%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.4
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.1
 
  • Points 38.3 19.2
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