Game Analysis
Coastal Carolina (-7) 34 Liberty 26
What a great matchup this is. Both Coastal Carolina and Liberty have had magical seasons, as the Chanticleers are unbeaten with wins over good teams Louisiana-Lafayette, Appalachian State and BYU while the Flames have a win at Virginia Tech with their only loss being by just 1 point at NC State.
Liberty is led on offense by former Auburn backup Malik Willis, who has run for over 900 yards at 9 yards a pop and has been better throwing the ball than anticipated, completing 64% of his passes with just 4 interceptions (3 in their one loss to NC State). Liberty’s offense has been 0.3 yards per play better than an average FBS attack (6.7 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) and I project 366 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Flames in this game against a better than average Coastal Carolina defense that given up only 18.5 points per game and 5.5 yppl (to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team).
Coastal Carolina may be the most surprisingly good team in the nation thanks to freshman quarterback Grayson McCall, who has completed 69% of his passes while rating at 2.0 yards per pass play better than average (8.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average FBS QB). McCall can also run the ball effectively (over 500 yards at 6.0 yprp) and the Chanticleers’ run-oriented attack has averaged 36.9 points and 6.6 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team (they’re +0.8 yppl with McCall in the game).
Liberty has been 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense) and the Flames are bad defending the run (0.5 yprp worse than average) and would be worse defensively if #1 tackler (on a per game basis) LB Anthony Butler misses this game (he’s questionable). Coastal’s offense should perform pretty well and I project 430 yards at 7.1 yppl for the Chanticleers. Overall the math favors Coastal Carolina by 8 points. I’ll pass on this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
41.8
29.6
-
Run Yards
259.5
139.0
-
YPRP
6.5
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.0
15.1
-
Pass Att
28.6
27.8
-
Comp %
62.9%
54.5%
-
Pass Yards
227.9
167.8
-
Sacks
2.3
1.9
-
Sack Yards
13.9
15.4
-
Sack %
7.3%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
30.9
29.6
-
Net Pass Yards
214.0
152.4
-
YPPP
6.9
5.1
Total
-
Total Plays
72.6
59.3
-
Total Yards
487.4
306.8
-
YPPL
6.7
5.2
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.8
-
Int %
1.7%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
42.7
28.7
-
Run Yards
228.3
134.1
-
YPRP
5.5
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.9
19.1
-
Pass Att
23.8
30.8
-
Comp %
66.8%
62.0%
-
Pass Yards
218.9
206.1
-
Sacks
1.2
2.6
-
Sack Yards
5.6
17.7
-
Sack %
4.8%
7.8%
-
Pass Plays
25.0
33.4
-
Net Pass Yards
213.3
188.4
-
YPPP
8.5
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
67.7
62.1
-
Total Yards
447.2
340.2
-
YPPL
6.6
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.4
1.3
-
Int %
1.7%
4.2%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.1
2.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/19/20 @ Western Kentucky |
30-24 |
+14.5
W
|
56/28 |
370/106 |
6.6/3.8 |
0/0 |
13/18 |
21/25 |
126/193 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
5.7/7.7 |
496/299 |
6.4/5.6 |
09/26/20 FIU |
36-34 |
-7.5
L
|
42/26 |
254/214 |
6.0/8.2 |
0/0 |
25/11 |
32/20 |
288/90 |
0/0 |
2/5 |
8.5/3.6 |
542/304 |
7.1/6.0 |
10/03/20 North Alabama |
28-7 |
0.0
W
|
39/23 |
257/101 |
6.6/4.4 |
0/1 |
15/18 |
25/27 |
100/146 |
1/2 |
1/6 |
3.8/4.4 |
357/247 |
5.5/4.4 |
10/10/20 UL Monroe |
40-7 |
-17.0
W
|
36/25 |
210/86 |
5.8/3.4 |
1/1 |
13/16 |
31/35 |
188/97 |
1/2 |
2/1 |
5.7/2.7 |
398/183 |
5.8/3.0 |
10/17/20 @ Syracuse |
38-21 |
-3.0
W
|
43/24 |
355/121 |
8.3/5.0 |
2/0 |
16/19 |
20/40 |
170/187 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
7.7/4.3 |
525/308 |
8.1/4.6 |
10/24/20 Southern Miss |
56-35 |
-14.0
W
|
32/40 |
215/215 |
6.7/5.4 |
1/0 |
24/14 |
32/26 |
327/148 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
9.1/5.5 |
542/363 |
8.0/5.4 |
11/07/20 @ Virginia Tech |
38-35 |
+15.0
W
|
47/31 |
264/210 |
5.6/6.8 |
2/1 |
20/20 |
30/27 |
202/217 |
0/0 |
3/0 |
6.1/8.0 |
466/427 |
5.8/7.4 |
11/14/20 Western Carolina |
58-14 |
-37.0
W
|
40/34 |
265/171 |
6.6/5.0 |
2/1 |
18/18 |
24/30 |
374/111 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
15.0/3.3 |
639/282 |
9.8/4.1 |
11/21/20 @ No Carolina St. |
14-15 |
+5.0
W
|
35/34 |
130/217 |
3.7/6.4 |
0/0 |
13/14 |
32/27 |
149/126 |
3/1 |
3/3 |
4.3/4.2 |
279/343 |
4.0/5.4 |
11/27/20 Massachusetts |
45-0 |
-38.0
W
|
43/29 |
389/66 |
9.0/2.3 |
0/1 |
20/9 |
31/22 |
262/161 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
8.2/6.7 |
651/227 |
8.7/4.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/12/20 @ Kansas |
38-23 |
+6.5
W
|
42/35 |
183/209 |
4.4/6.0 |
0/1 |
11/21 |
18/35 |
133/179 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
7.4/4.7 |
316/388 |
5.3/5.3 |
09/18/20 Campbell |
43-21 |
0.0
W
|
36/45 |
195/238 |
5.4/5.3 |
0/0 |
11/12 |
17/25 |
273/104 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
16.1/3.5 |
468/342 |
8.8/4.6 |
10/03/20 Arkansas St. |
52-23 |
+3.0
W
|
50/16 |
226/51 |
4.5/3.2 |
2/1 |
20/28 |
29/44 |
311/333 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
10.4/7.1 |
537/384 |
6.7/6.1 |
10/14/20 @ UL Lafayette |
30-27 |
+7.5
W
|
46/31 |
220/240 |
4.8/7.7 |
0/0 |
17/14 |
24/24 |
198/173 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
7.9/7.2 |
418/413 |
5.9/7.5 |
10/24/20 Georgia Southern |
28-14 |
-1.5
W
|
35/33 |
147/145 |
4.2/4.4 |
0/0 |
15/8 |
28/22 |
241/62 |
2/2 |
3/4 |
7.8/2.4 |
388/207 |
5.9/3.5 |
10/31/20 @ Georgia St. |
51-0 |
-3.5
W
|
46/25 |
252/90 |
5.5/3.6 |
1/1 |
21/7 |
29/12 |
282/25 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
9.7/1.7 |
534/115 |
7.1/2.9 |
11/07/20 South Alabama |
23-6 |
-17.0
T
|
32/33 |
232/130 |
7.3/3.9 |
2/2 |
17/23 |
25/31 |
207/207 |
0/0 |
1/5 |
8.0/5.8 |
439/337 |
7.6/4.9 |
11/21/20 Appalachian State |
34-23 |
-3.0
W
|
28/43 |
199/236 |
7.1/5.5 |
1/0 |
12/17 |
21/29 |
176/184 |
0/3 |
4/3 |
7.0/5.8 |
375/420 |
7.1/5.6 |
11/28/20 @ Texas State |
49-14 |
-17.5
W
|
54/21 |
414/133 |
7.7/6.3 |
0/1 |
12/20 |
20/26 |
166/145 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
8.3/5.0 |
580/278 |
7.8/5.6 |
12/05/20 BYU |
22-17 |
+10.5
W
|
53/25 |
282/181 |
5.3/7.2 |
1/1 |
10/19 |
15/30 |
84/228 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
5.3/7.4 |
366/409 |
5.3/7.3 |
12/12/20 @ Troy |
42-38 |
-13.5
L
|
41/25 |
184/103 |
4.5/4.1 |
0/1 |
24/34 |
29/55 |
335/348 |
1/2 |
1/1 |
11.2/6.2 |
519/451 |
7.3/5.6 |