Game Analysis

Lean – Kentucky (+6)  22   Penn State  26

Kentucky was a surprising 9-3 in the regular season and the Wildcats played relatively better against better teams, going 4-2 straight up and 4-2 ATS as an underdog (with one of those spread losses being a 6 point overtime loss as a 5.5 point dog) while recording a 1-5 ATS mark when favored. Even without assuming that Kentucky will play relatively better as a dog my math has the Wildcats keeping this game close.

Kentucky has a slightly better than average offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Wildcats’ run-oriented attack has a bit of a match-up advantage against a Penn State defense that is much better defending the pass (1.7 yppp better than average) than they are defending the run (0.5 yprp better than average). The math model projects 229 rushing yards at 5.4 yprp and just 124 rushing yards at 4.4 yppp for the Wildcats in this game.

Penn State’s offense also depends on the run, as the Nittany Lions averaged 227 rushing yards at 6.1 yprp and just 192 pass yards at 6.2 yppp. Kentucky is also better against the pass (1.2 yppp better than average) than they are against the run (0.6 yprp better than average) and Penn State should also be able to run the ball (202 yards at 5.6 yprp projected) while average a modest 5.4 yppp for 153 passing yards.

Overall the total yards are pretty even, as Kentucky is projected to run more plays and the math favors Penn State by just 2.2 points with a total of 47 points after adding a bit for the good weather in Orlando. However, Penn State was very good at turning yards into points, as they averaged 5.8 points per redzone opportunity, which ranks among the best in the nation. There is some variance in that number but I’ll make a slight adjustment and call for the Lions to win by 4 points.