Game Analysis
Lean – Under (54.5) – MISSISSIPPI (-6.5) 26 Kentucky 21
Mississippi’s offense gets all the publicity but the Rebels’ defense has allowed an average of just 10 points per game and 4.3 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense. Kentucky has been below average offensively but should perk up with the debut of superstar RB Chris Rodriguez, who ran for 1379 yards at 6.1 ypr last season but was suspended for the first 4 games of this campaign. I expect Kavosley Smoke (5.1 yprp since the beginning of last season and 5.2 ypr this season) to get the start but Rodriguez will take the reps of backups that have combined for just 3.0 ypr on 42 runs this season.
Kentucky’s defense is just as good as the Ole’Miss offense and I think it will be a challenge for these teams to top 54 total points. I’ll lean Under 54 points or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
28.5
27.5
-
Run Yards
111.5
121.3
-
YPRP
3.9
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.8
14.8
-
Pass Att
29.3
29.3
-
Comp %
67.5%
50.4%
-
Pass Yards
295.8
164.8
-
Sacks
4.0
1.5
-
Sack Yards
22.8
9.8
-
Sack %
12.0%
4.9%
-
Pass Plays
33.3
30.8
-
Net Pass Yards
273.0
155.0
-
YPPP
8.2
5.0
Total
-
Total Plays
61.8
58.3
-
Total Yards
384.5
276.3
-
YPPL
6.2
4.7
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.8
-
Int %
3.4%
2.6%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
47.8
34.0
-
Run Yards
287.0
138.3
-
YPRP
6.0
4.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.5
21.3
-
Pass Att
26.0
36.5
-
Comp %
59.6%
58.2%
-
Pass Yards
207.3
198.0
-
Sacks
0.5
3.3
-
Sack Yards
4.8
19.5
-
Sack %
1.9%
8.2%
-
Pass Plays
26.5
39.8
-
Net Pass Yards
202.5
178.5
-
YPPP
7.6
4.5
Total
-
Total Plays
74.3
73.8
-
Total Yards
489.5
316.8
-
YPPL
6.6
4.3
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.0
-
Int %
2.9%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/22 Miami Ohio |
37-13 |
-15.0
W
|
21/29 |
76/131 |
3.6/4.5 |
0/1 |
21/22 |
32/32 |
277/161 |
1/0 |
4/3 |
7.7/4.6 |
353/292 |
6.2/4.6 |
09/10/22 @ Florida |
26-16 |
+6.0
W
|
34/29 |
127/147 |
3.7/5.1 |
0/0 |
13/14 |
24/35 |
184/135 |
1/2 |
3/1 |
6.8/3.8 |
311/282 |
5.1/4.3 |
09/17/22 Youngstown State |
31-0 |
0.0
W
|
31/19 |
132/79 |
4.3/4.2 |
1/0 |
27/9 |
35/24 |
349/125 |
2/1 |
4/2 |
8.9/4.8 |
481/204 |
6.9/4.5 |
09/24/22 Northern Ill |
31-23 |
-27.0
L
|
28/33 |
111/128 |
4.0/3.9 |
1/0 |
18/14 |
26/26 |
282/199 |
0/0 |
5/0 |
9.1/7.7 |
393/327 |
6.7/5.5 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/22 Troy |
28-10 |
-21.5
L
|
43/29 |
275/93 |
6.4/3.2 |
2/1 |
19/35 |
29/48 |
167/262 |
1/1 |
0/4 |
5.8/5.0 |
442/355 |
6.1/4.4 |
09/10/22 Central Arkansas |
59-3 |
0.0
W
|
36/37 |
241/119 |
6.7/3.2 |
0/2 |
18/13 |
32/31 |
269/78 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
8.2/2.4 |
510/197 |
7.4/2.8 |
09/17/22 @ Georgia Tech |
42-0 |
-17.0
W
|
61/27 |
324/98 |
5.3/3.6 |
0/0 |
12/18 |
19/32 |
220/116 |
1/0 |
1/7 |
11.0/3.0 |
544/214 |
6.7/3.2 |
09/24/22 Tulsa |
35-27 |
-21.0
L
|
51/43 |
308/243 |
6.0/5.7 |
1/0 |
13/19 |
24/35 |
154/258 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
6.4/7.4 |
462/501 |
6.2/6.4 |