Game Analysis
2-Star Best Bet – **LOUISVILLE (-2.5) 34 Kentucky 24
Louisville’s pass offense has predictably been better without WR Braden Smith, who quit the team after gaining just 68 yards on 20 targets in the first 4 games of the season. The rest of the Cardinals’ receivers are averaging over 10 yards per target and Louisville’s pass offense has been 2.4 yards per pass play better than average in 6 games without Smith (8.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average team). Louisville also has a strong rushing attack with QB Malik Cunningham leading the way and the Cardinals should move the ball pretty easily against an overrated Kentucky defense that’s been just 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average FBS defense).
Louisville’s defense is actually a bit better than Kentucky’s defense (the Cardinals’ stop unit is 0.3 yppl better than average) and Kentucky’s offense, while good, is not as good as Louisville’s attack. My math model favors Louisville by 9 points and the Cardinal apply to a 48-4 ATS subset of a 135-48-4 ATS home momentum situation.
Louisville is a 2-Star Best Bet at -2.5 or less and 1-Star at -3 up to -115 odds.
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.5
28.0
-
Run Yards
205.5
130.2
-
YPRP
6.1
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.1
20.9
-
Pass Att
29.0
31.4
-
Comp %
65.8%
66.7%
-
Pass Yards
231.9
220.6
-
Sacks
1.6
2.5
-
Sack Yards
10.6
13.9
-
Sack %
5.4%
7.2%
-
Pass Plays
30.6
33.8
-
Net Pass Yards
221.3
206.6
-
YPPP
7.2
6.1
Total
-
Total Plays
64.2
61.8
-
Total Yards
426.7
336.8
-
YPPL
6.6
5.4
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.5
-
Int %
3.8%
1.4%
-
Fumbles
0.9
0.3
-
Turnovers
2.0
0.7
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.8
30.5
-
Run Yards
226.8
156.7
-
YPRP
6.0
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.4
23.3
-
Pass Att
28.1
36.4
-
Comp %
61.8%
64.0%
-
Pass Yards
243.8
253.4
-
Sacks
1.5
2.6
-
Sack Yards
8.0
18.6
-
Sack %
4.9%
6.8%
-
Pass Plays
29.5
39.0
-
Net Pass Yards
235.8
234.7
-
YPPP
8.0
6.0
Total
-
Total Plays
67.4
69.5
-
Total Yards
462.6
391.5
-
YPPL
6.9
5.6
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.9
-
Int %
1.6%
2.5%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/04/21 UL Monroe |
45-10 |
-31.0
W
|
29/37 |
168/63 |
5.8/1.7 |
2/0 |
22/11 |
33/20 |
395/36 |
1/0 |
4/5 |
10.7/1.4 |
563/99 |
8.5/1.6 |
| 09/11/21 Missouri |
35-28 |
-5.5
W
|
47/23 |
354/112 |
7.5/4.9 |
1/0 |
10/34 |
18/52 |
168/289 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
8.4/5.5 |
522/401 |
7.8/5.3 |
| 09/18/21 Chattanooga |
28-23 |
0.0
W
|
24/28 |
111/171 |
4.6/6.1 |
1/0 |
23/21 |
35/35 |
246/168 |
2/1 |
1/0 |
6.8/4.8 |
357/339 |
6.0/5.4 |
| 09/25/21 @ South Carolina |
16-10 |
-5.0
W
|
43/24 |
233/70 |
5.4/2.9 |
2/0 |
15/17 |
22/25 |
102/146 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
4.6/5.4 |
335/216 |
5.2/4.2 |
| 10/02/21 Florida |
20-13 |
+7.5
W
|
27/39 |
150/171 |
5.6/4.4 |
0/0 |
7/24 |
17/32 |
74/211 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
3.9/6.6 |
224/382 |
4.9/5.4 |
| 10/09/21 LSU |
42-21 |
-2.5
W
|
42/31 |
337/175 |
8.0/5.6 |
0/1 |
14/22 |
17/38 |
139/233 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
7.7/5.5 |
476/408 |
7.9/5.6 |
| 10/16/21 @ Georgia |
13-30 |
+21.5
W
|
24/25 |
65/165 |
2.7/6.6 |
0/0 |
32/14 |
42/20 |
178/246 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
4.0/11.7 |
243/411 |
3.5/8.9 |
| 10/30/21 @ Mississippi St. |
17-31 |
+1.5
L
|
20/33 |
70/106 |
3.5/3.2 |
1/0 |
17/36 |
28/39 |
150/332 |
3/0 |
0/2 |
5.4/8.1 |
220/438 |
4.6/5.9 |
| 11/06/21 Tennessee |
42-45 |
-1.0
L
|
46/19 |
250/175 |
5.4/9.2 |
0/1 |
32/15 |
50/20 |
362/295 |
1/0 |
3/5 |
6.8/11.8 |
612/470 |
6.2/10.7 |
| 11/13/21 @ Vanderbilt |
34-17 |
-21.5
L
|
33/26 |
248/120 |
7.5/4.6 |
0/0 |
14/20 |
22/29 |
168/146 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
7.3/4.4 |
416/266 |
7.4/4.5 |
| 11/20/21 New Mexico St. |
56-16 |
-36.0
W
|
34/23 |
274/104 |
8.1/4.5 |
3/1 |
24/16 |
35/35 |
452/171 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
12.6/4.5 |
726/275 |
10.4/4.5 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/06/21 @ Mississippi |
24-43 |
+10.0
L
|
37/38 |
166/203 |
4.5/5.3 |
1/0 |
23/22 |
38/32 |
195/368 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
4.9/10.8 |
361/571 |
4.7/7.9 |
| 09/11/21 Eastern Kentucky |
30-3 |
0.0
W
|
37/21 |
169/76 |
4.6/3.6 |
1/1 |
17/22 |
26/34 |
280/134 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
10.4/3.8 |
449/210 |
7.0/3.8 |
| 09/17/21 UCF |
42-35 |
+6.5
W
|
36/32 |
200/231 |
5.6/7.2 |
0/0 |
24/22 |
39/29 |
301/189 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
7.5/6.1 |
501/420 |
6.6/6.7 |
| 09/25/21 @ Florida St. |
31-23 |
-1.0
W
|
39/30 |
140/242 |
3.6/8.1 |
0/0 |
25/24 |
40/39 |
257/211 |
0/1 |
1/6 |
6.3/4.7 |
397/453 |
5.0/6.0 |
| 10/02/21 @ Wake Forest |
34-37 |
+7.0
W
|
41/42 |
224/184 |
5.5/4.4 |
2/0 |
19/23 |
26/40 |
283/317 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
10.1/7.5 |
507/501 |
7.3/6.0 |
| 10/09/21 Virginia |
33-34 |
-2.5
L
|
34/20 |
233/66 |
6.9/3.3 |
1/0 |
17/40 |
25/60 |
270/456 |
0/2 |
0/5 |
10.8/7.0 |
503/522 |
8.5/6.1 |
| 10/23/21 Boston College |
28-14 |
-5.5
W
|
45/33 |
320/148 |
7.1/4.5 |
2/1 |
9/17 |
17/32 |
107/118 |
2/2 |
0/3 |
6.3/3.4 |
427/266 |
6.9/3.9 |
| 10/30/21 @ No Carolina St. |
13-28 |
+6.5
L
|
38/22 |
228/57 |
6.0/2.6 |
0/0 |
11/25 |
28/36 |
206/310 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
6.6/8.4 |
434/367 |
6.3/6.2 |
| 11/06/21 Clemson |
24-30 |
+4.0
L
|
43/32 |
251/150 |
5.8/4.7 |
0/1 |
13/18 |
23/31 |
159/197 |
0/0 |
4/3 |
5.9/5.8 |
410/347 |
5.9/5.3 |
| 11/13/21 Syracuse |
41-3 |
-3.0
W
|
31/35 |
168/182 |
5.4/5.2 |
0/1 |
15/10 |
22/18 |
239/7 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
10.4/0.3 |
407/189 |
7.5/3.3 |
| 11/18/21 @ Duke |
62-22 |
-20.0
W
|
35/30 |
396/185 |
11.3/6.2 |
0/1 |
18/33 |
25/49 |
297/275 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
11.4/5.6 |
693/460 |
11.4/5.8 |
Kentucky
@ 
Louisville