Kent State @

Western Mich

Sat, Oct 16
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 185
Odds: Western Mich -7, Total: 69

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *UNDER (69) – W. MICHIGAN (-7)  31   Kent State  28

The total on this game doesn’t make any sense to me. Kent State’s games have averaged a total of 57.3 points and Western Michigan’s games have averaged a total of just 51.0 points. The national average for total points this season is 54.0. Kent State’s games are 3.3 points over the average and Western Michigan’s games are 3.0 points below that average. A compensated points model would project just 56 total points in this game.

From a yards per play perspective the numbers still don’t come close to justifying the high total. Kent State’s offense is 0.1 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl) and Western Michigan’s defense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl). The Golden Flashes are projected to average 6.1 yppl. Western Michigan’s offense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) and Kent’s defense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl). Western Michigan is projected to average only 5.7 yppl but to run significantly more plays, which is why I project the Broncos to win the game.

Kent State does run their offense at a fast pace (2.82 plays per minute of possession: average is 2.25) but Western Michigan dominates the time of possession (37.3 TOP average) and runs their offense at a slow pace (2.08 plays per minute). Only 140 total plays are projected, which is just 6 more than an average game, as Kent State’s fast paced attack is not likely to have the ball nearly as much as Western Michigan’s slow-paced offense (just 21.7 minutes of possession projected for Kent to 38.3 TOP for WMU).

The market has been off on the total on these teams this season (a combined 9-3 Unders) and I don’t see either team getting to 35 points, which would be necessary for this game to go over. Kent State has only topped 27 points once in 5 games against FBS competition and Western Michigan has scored more than 28 points just once in 6 games. There will also be consistent 13 to 15 MPH wind with gusts up to 30 MPH. That’s projected to lower scoring by a couple of points compared to the weather conditions these teams have faced so far this season.

The total on this game on Monday was 65 points. If I assume that 65 is the true total, then this game would have a 59.2% chance of going under 69 points and 57.7% chance of going under 68.5 points (56.5% under 68). The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 68 points or more (Strong Opinion down to 67 points).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Kent State
  • Western Mich
KNT
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 45.8 35.2
  • Run Yards 261.2 205.7
  • YPRP 5.7 5.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 16.7 24.2
  • Pass Att 28.2 39.5
  • Comp % 59.2% 61.2%
  • Pass Yards 225.5 252.2
  • Sacks 3.3 2.0
  • Sack Yards 20.0 12.2
  • Sack % 10.6% 4.8%
  • Pass Plays 31.5 41.5
  • Net Pass Yards 205.5 240.0
  • YPPP 6.5 5.8

Total

  • Total Plays 77.3 76.7
  • Total Yards 466.7 445.7
  • YPPL 6.0 5.8

TO


  • Int 0.3 2.0
  • Int % 1.2% 5.1%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.7
  • Turnovers 0.7 2.7
 
  • Points 28.0 29.3
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