Kent State @

Akron

Sat, Nov 20
ESPN+
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 337
Odds: Akron +13, Total: 73

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – Akron Team Total Over (30-115)

Alternate play is 1-Star on Akron (+13.5) at +11 or more

Akron (+13.5)  38   KENT STATE  42

Akron is a much more competitive team with Zach Gibson at quarterback, as Gibson has completed 70% of his 136 passes with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions and his compensated yards per pass play (7.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB) is 1.7 yppp better than the team’s overall pass rating (because the other two quarterbacks are dreadfully bad). I had Akron as a Best Bet last week getting 26 points at Western Michigan and the Zips lost 40-45 and covered easily. Kent State has a bad pass defense (7.1 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 6.0 yppp against an average defense) and the Flashes don’t defend the run well either (0.6 yprp worse than average). Kent State has allowed 36.8 points per game and Akron’s offense with Gibson at quarterback is 0.2 yards per play better than average on a national scale and is 0.5 yppl better than the average attack that Kent State has faced this season. I see no reason why Akron can’t match the 37 points per game that the Flashes have allowed this season.

Kent State’s offense is going to score a ton of points too, as the Flashes are 0.2 yppl better than average offensively and run their attack at a fast pace. Akron’s defense is once again among the worse units in the nation, allowing 41.4 points per game to FBS opponents and rating at 2.0 yppl worse than average. The market projects 43 points for Kent State in this game and my math is in line with that projection.

All the value in favor of Akron is in their offense scoring much more than projected with Gibson at quarterback and that’s why the team total over is the better play here, as I can see the Zips scoring more than 30 points and giving up over 50. The Akron Team Total Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 30 points or less and 1-Star up to 31 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Kent State
  • Akron
KNT
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 42.4 38.5
  • Run Yards 245.4 208.0
  • YPRP 5.8 5.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 19.3 24.9
  • Pass Att 30.2 38.7
  • Comp % 63.9% 64.3%
  • Pass Yards 251.2 295.1
  • Sacks 2.9 1.4
  • Sack Yards 17.5 8.8
  • Sack % 8.8% 3.5%
  • Pass Plays 33.1 40.1
  • Net Pass Yards 233.7 286.3
  • YPPP 7.1 7.1

Total

  • Total Plays 75.5 78.6
  • Total Yards 479.1 494.3
  • YPPL 6.3 6.3

TO


  • Int 0.2 1.3
  • Int % 0.7% 3.4%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.7
  • Turnovers 0.8 2.0
 
  • Points 31.5 36.8
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