Game Analysis

AKRON (-15)  26   Kent State  16

It’s amazing that a team as bad as Akron can actually get to the conference championship with a win tonight. The Zips will no doubt be ready to play but Kent State should play with some passion as well in this ‘Wagon Wheel’ rivalry game. Kent State is a horrible team that rates at 1.5 yards per play worse than average offensively and 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively but Akron is 1.0 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively and laying 15 points is a tall task. The spread is bigger than it should be because Akron has been lucky in 3^rd-down conversions (44% to 36% for opponents), redzone scoring (5.0 yards per RZ and only 4.3 opponents points per RZ) and in touchdowns on turnovers (3 to 0). A team that has been outgained 4.9 yppl to 6.3 yppl should also be negative in all 3 of those areas and Akron is certainly worse than their scores indicate.

Kent State, meanwhile, has been unlucky in addition to being horrible, as the Golden Flashes have converted only 4 of 20 4^th downs, which is extremely low for even the worst offensive teams, while their opponents have converted 10 of 15 4^th down chances. Kent State also has the lowest points per redzone average (2.8 ppRZ) than any team in my database and they should be better than that based on their overall numbers. The Flashes are also -4 in defensive touchdowns and all of that has made a bad team look even worse than they actually are.

My math model projects Akron with an advantage of only 59 total yards and 5.7 yppl to 4.7 yppl, which would normally equate to an 8 point margin. Kent is turnover prone and that should continue, but there is still plenty of value in favor of Kent State in this game. I’m passing on making the Golden Flashes a Best Bet or Strong Opinion because Akron applies to a 123-57-4 ATS home favorite momentum situation. However, I trust my math more than the situations and I certainly lean with the big, ugly dog in this game.