Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved significantly since releasing this play on Monday morning. No play at the current number.

Strong Opinion – Kennesaw State (+1)  35   JACKSONVILLE STATE  29

Jacksonville State is hosting this game because they beat Kennesaw State at home 35-26 a few weeks ago. However, Kennesaw State outplayed the Gamecocks by 4.6 points from the line of scrimmage, losing that game due to being -3 in turnovers (-4 if you include the intercepted Hail Mary pass on the final play). I expect Kennesaw State to outplay Jacksonville State from the line of scrimmage again in this game and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll be derailed by numerous turnovers as they were in the first meeting (I project Jacksonville State was a 0.3 turnover advantage).

The Owls should be able to move the ball well again, as they did in the first meeting with Jacksonville State (578 yards at 6.5 yards per play). Quarterback Amari Odom, who started the season as a backup, has averaged 8.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB) and the offense rates at 0.3 yards per play better than an average FBS offense when Odom is behind center.

Jacksonville State has a horrible defense that’s allowed over 400 yards per game at 5.9 yppl to opposing offenses that collectively would average just 5.1 yppl against an average defense. The Gamecocks are 0.5 yards per rushing play worse than average and 1.3 yards per pass play worse than average, so Odom should have a productive game but without the interceptions this time (he threw just 3 interceptions on 193 pass attempts excluding the first JV State game). The Owls are projected to gain 460 yards at 6.7 yards per play in this game.

Jacksonville State’s offense also improved when they switched quarterbacks, as Caden Creel has been an upgrade over Gavin Wimsatt, who got the first 5 starts of the season. Creel is not a good passer (although Wimsatt was worse), as he’s averaged a modest 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.4 yppp to an average QB. However, Creel is an excellent runner, and he tallied 988 yards on the ground on 136 runs (7.3 yprp). Starting with the week 5 game against Southern Miss, when Creel came off the bench and ran for 173 yards, the Gamecocks have averaged 266 ground yards per game at 5.7 yprp (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team. Even with the rushing attack being 0.2 yprp better than average on a national scale, the Jacksonville State offense still rates at 0.5 yards per play worse than average.

Kennesaw’s defense is not quite as bad as their opponent’s defense, but the Owls are 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively, rating at 0.5 yprp worse than average and 1.1 yppp worse than average. The projection for  Jacksonville State’s offense is 438 total yards at 6.1 yppl.

Kennesaw State is a bit better defensively (0.1 yppl) and significantly better on offense (0.8 yppl better) and I expect the Owls to outplay the Gamecocks again from the line of scrimmage and to not be so negative in turnovers as they were the last time these teams met on this field.

Kennesaw State is a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.