Game Analysis
Lean – Kansas State (+2) 32 Texas Christian 29
Kansas State lost 28-38 at TCU in week 8 but that game would have been different has the Wildcats not been -2 in turnovers. Kansas State averaged 7.5 yards per play in that game while the Horned Frogs averaged 6.3 yppl and I project a slight edge in total yards and yards per play for the Wildcats in this game (428 yards at 6.7 yppl to 412 yards at 6.6 yppl).
The Kansas State offense is better with Will Howard at quarterback, as the explosiveness in the aerial attack with Howard (9.0 yards per pass play) more than makes up for the lack of running from the quarterback position that Adrian Martinez supplied (687 yards on 96 runs but just 6.0 yppp). The Kansas State offense with Howard is 1.4 yards per play better than average, which is basically the same level of the TCU attack with Duggan at quarterback (+1.5 yppl).
Kansas State is the better defensive team and has better special teams and my model favors the Wildcats by 2.8 points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.9
31.6
-
Run Yards
214.4
156.4
-
YPRP
5.7
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.2
20.0
-
Pass Att
26.8
33.4
-
Comp %
64.0%
59.8%
-
Pass Yards
211.2
218.7
-
Sacks
1.4
2.3
-
Sack Yards
8.3
13.6
-
Sack %
5.0%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
28.3
35.7
-
Net Pass Yards
202.9
205.1
-
YPPP
7.2
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
66.2
67.3
-
Total Yards
417.3
361.5
-
YPPL
6.3
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.3
-
Int %
1.2%
3.7%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.6
-
Turnovers
0.8
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.3
33.5
-
Run Yards
216.4
159.7
-
YPRP
6.1
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.5
18.8
-
Pass Att
30.4
35.0
-
Comp %
67.4%
53.8%
-
Pass Yards
276.6
240.5
-
Sacks
2.0
1.8
-
Sack Yards
15.1
9.9
-
Sack %
6.2%
4.8%
-
Pass Plays
32.4
36.8
-
Net Pass Yards
261.5
230.6
-
YPPP
8.1
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
67.7
70.3
-
Total Yards
477.9
390.3
-
YPPL
7.1
5.6
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.2
-
Int %
0.8%
3.3%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.3
-
Turnovers
0.7
1.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/22 South Dakota |
34-0 |
0.0
W
|
39/30 |
255/168 |
6.5/5.6 |
0/0 |
15/18 |
19/34 |
76/116 |
0/1 |
4/4 |
3.3/3.1 |
331/284 |
5.3/4.2 |
| 09/10/22 Missouri |
40-12 |
-7.5
W
|
43/34 |
239/95 |
5.6/2.8 |
1/0 |
9/16 |
20/27 |
101/143 |
0/4 |
0/1 |
5.1/5.1 |
340/238 |
5.4/3.8 |
| 09/17/22 Tulane |
10-17 |
-14.0
L
|
42/35 |
186/176 |
4.4/5.0 |
0/0 |
21/13 |
31/26 |
150/166 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
4.8/5.9 |
336/342 |
4.6/5.4 |
| 09/24/22 @ Oklahoma |
41-34 |
+13.5
W
|
48/33 |
277/225 |
5.8/6.8 |
0/0 |
21/26 |
34/39 |
234/325 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
6.9/8.1 |
511/550 |
6.2/7.5 |
| 10/01/22 Texas Tech |
37-28 |
-7.5
W
|
33/28 |
368/141 |
11.2/5.0 |
1/2 |
12/34 |
19/48 |
93/332 |
0/2 |
3/6 |
4.2/6.1 |
461/473 |
8.4/5.8 |
| 10/08/22 @ Iowa St. |
10-9 |
-1.0
T
|
34/22 |
148/93 |
4.4/4.2 |
1/0 |
13/22 |
20/38 |
239/183 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
10.4/4.6 |
387/276 |
6.8/4.5 |
| 10/22/22 @ TCU |
28-38 |
+3.5
L
|
29/49 |
160/248 |
5.5/5.1 |
0/0 |
14/17 |
23/26 |
232/248 |
2/0 |
0/4 |
10.1/8.3 |
392/496 |
7.5/6.3 |
| 10/29/22 Oklahoma St. |
48-0 |
-2.0
W
|
34/26 |
205/66 |
6.0/2.5 |
0/1 |
21/17 |
37/33 |
296/167 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
8.0/4.6 |
501/233 |
7.1/3.8 |
| 11/05/22 Texas |
27-34 |
+2.5
L
|
32/39 |
147/257 |
4.6/6.6 |
1/2 |
24/18 |
36/31 |
308/207 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
7.9/6.7 |
455/464 |
6.4/6.6 |
| 11/12/22 @ Baylor |
31-3 |
+2.5
W
|
43/23 |
191/103 |
4.4/4.5 |
0/0 |
26/22 |
35/38 |
214/203 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
5.9/5.3 |
405/306 |
5.1/5.0 |
| 11/19/22 @ West Virginia |
48-31 |
-7.5
W
|
38/31 |
159/176 |
4.2/5.7 |
0/0 |
19/16 |
27/28 |
287/193 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
10.3/6.2 |
446/369 |
6.8/6.0 |
| 11/26/22 Kansas |
47-27 |
-11.5
W
|
40/29 |
238/129 |
6.0/4.4 |
1/2 |
11/21 |
21/33 |
205/178 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
8.9/5.2 |
443/307 |
7.0/4.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/22 @ Colorado |
38-13 |
-13.5
W
|
28/27 |
277/130 |
9.9/4.8 |
0/0 |
15/26 |
23/41 |
138/218 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
6.0/5.1 |
415/348 |
8.1/5.0 |
| 09/10/22 Tarleton State |
59-17 |
0.0
W
|
36/28 |
185/88 |
5.1/3.1 |
1/0 |
28/11 |
34/25 |
445/210 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
12.7/8.4 |
630/298 |
8.9/5.6 |
| 09/24/22 @ SMU |
42-34 |
-2.5
W
|
28/35 |
237/122 |
8.5/3.5 |
0/0 |
23/27 |
30/49 |
254/360 |
0/2 |
5/2 |
7.3/7.1 |
491/482 |
7.8/5.6 |
| 10/01/22 Oklahoma |
55-24 |
+5.5
W
|
40/45 |
371/231 |
9.3/5.1 |
0/1 |
24/15 |
34/34 |
318/185 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
9.1/5.1 |
689/416 |
9.2/5.1 |
| 10/08/22 @ Kansas |
38-31 |
-7.0
T
|
29/36 |
154/212 |
5.3/5.9 |
1/1 |
23/21 |
33/34 |
299/346 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
8.8/9.9 |
453/558 |
7.2/7.9 |
| 10/15/22 Oklahoma St. |
43-40 |
-4.0
L
|
42/36 |
228/156 |
5.4/4.3 |
1/0 |
23/16 |
40/36 |
282/241 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
6.9/6.3 |
510/397 |
6.1/5.4 |
| 10/22/22 Kansas St. |
38-28 |
-3.5
W
|
49/29 |
248/160 |
5.1/5.5 |
0/0 |
17/14 |
26/23 |
248/232 |
0/2 |
4/0 |
8.3/10.1 |
496/392 |
6.3/7.5 |
| 10/29/22 @ West Virginia |
41-31 |
-7.5
W
|
26/37 |
165/156 |
6.3/4.2 |
1/1 |
16/23 |
28/39 |
329/254 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
11.3/6.0 |
494/410 |
9.0/5.2 |
| 11/05/22 Texas Tech |
34-24 |
-8.0
W
|
43/35 |
267/207 |
6.2/5.9 |
0/0 |
12/16 |
23/32 |
166/145 |
0/1 |
5/4 |
5.9/4.0 |
433/352 |
6.1/5.0 |
| 11/12/22 @ Texas |
17-10 |
+7.0
W
|
38/19 |
217/46 |
5.7/2.4 |
1/0 |
19/17 |
29/39 |
86/153 |
0/1 |
5/3 |
2.5/3.6 |
303/199 |
4.2/3.3 |
| 11/19/22 @ Baylor |
29-28 |
-2.0
L
|
26/45 |
117/242 |
4.5/5.4 |
0/0 |
24/21 |
35/30 |
327/259 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
9.3/8.4 |
444/501 |
7.3/6.6 |
| 11/26/22 Iowa St. |
62-14 |
-10.0
W
|
38/30 |
131/166 |
3.4/5.5 |
0/1 |
22/19 |
30/38 |
246/164 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
8.2/4.2 |
377/330 |
5.5/4.8 |
Kansas St.
vs 
TCU