Kansas St. @

Oklahoma St.

Sat, Sep 25
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 369
Odds: Oklahoma St. -5.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Oklahoma State Team Total Under (26.5 -115)

Alternate play is game Under (47.5) at 46 or more

OKLAHOMA STATE (-5.5)  20   Kansas State  19

Oklahoma State has averaged only 24 points and 5.2 yards per play and their best offensive performance, in terms of yppl, was against FCS team Missouri State (5.6 yppl in that game). Kansas State’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed just 15.7 points per game, including just 7 and 17 to good offensive teams Stanford and Nevada, and the Wildcats have yielded just 4.6 yppl in 3 games to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. That unit probably won’t continue to be as good as it has been, but I currently rate the K-State defense at 0.8 yppl better than average and Oklahoma State’s offense is currently rated as just average, which is 0.8 yppl better than they’ve actually been so far this season. I expect the Cowboys’ offense to improve with top receiver Tay Martin likely coming back this week after testing out his injured ankle for just 2 plays in week 2 and missing last week’s game against Boise. Jaden Bray was also out last week and I’ll assume he’ll return, although there is no word on his status.

Oklahoma State’s offensive decline this season was inevitable with the departure of superstar WR Tylan Wallace and last season’s #2 receiver Dillon Stoner. Those two combined for 159 targets at 9.4 yards per target while the rest of the Cowboy’s receivers averaged only 6.9 YPT last season. That’s going to lead to a significant drop in Oklahoma State’s yards per pass play numbers and the Cowboys’ rushing attack is mediocre (just 4.4 yards per rushing play this season against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team).

Oklahoma’s offense has not scored more than 21 points in any of their 3 games (they got a kickoff return TD to get to 28 vs Tulsa) and it’s not likely that they surpass 26 points against a good Kansas State defense today.

Oklahoma State’s defense is played as well as I expected it would this season (0.8 yppl better than average) and has not allowed more than 23 points in any of their 3 games. Kansas State’s offense was hurt by the injury to quarterback Skylar Thompson and backup Will Howard is a significant downgrade, as he’s completed only 53.8% of his 195 passes with Kansas State (he was forced to play most of last season after Thompson was injured) and tends to throw interceptions (11 picks). Kansas State scored 38 points in last week’s impressive win over Nevada but they won’t have it so easy against Oklahoma State’s defense.

I’ll play Oklahoma State’s Team Total Under 26 or more for a Strong Opinion. The alternate play is the game Under 46 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Kansas St.
  • Oklahoma St.


  • Run Plays 40.7 24.0
  • Run Yards 242.0 82.3
  • YPRP 6.0 3.4


  • Pass Comp 9.7 22.3
  • Pass Att 16.0 33.0
  • Comp % 60.4% 67.7%
  • Pass Yards 148.3 225.3
  • Sacks 1.3 4.0
  • Sack Yards 10.3 25.3
  • Sack % 7.7% 10.8%
  • Pass Plays 17.3 37.0
  • Net Pass Yards 138.0 200.0
  • YPPP 8.0 5.4


  • Total Plays 58.0 61.0
  • Total Yards 380.0 282.3
  • YPPL 6.6 4.6


  • Int 1.0 1.3
  • Int % 6.3% 4.0%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.7 2.0
  • Points 31.0 15.7
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