Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – KANSAS (-3 -120)  33   Kansas State  24

Kansas State has beaten Kansas 16 consecutive times, but the Wildcats have also been favored in the last 15 meetings. Kansas is the better team this season and I expect the Jayhawks to end the long draught to their rival after coming close the last two years (lost by 4 and 2 points as dogs of 8 points and 9.5 points).

Kansas has been better than Kansas State on both sides of the ball this season. The Jayhawks have averaged 6.5 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and rate at 1.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for their positive outlier versus Cincinnati (10.3 yppl). The Kansas State attack has struggled to run the ball with big play back Dylan Edwards healthy for just one game and that unit has been just 0.3 yppl better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team).

Kansas has a significant edge offensively in this game and the Jayhawks’ defense has been a bit better than the Wildcats’ defense. KU has yielded 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team (adjusted for playing half the game against Texas Tech’s backup QB and half a game against the worst of the two UCF quarterbacks). Kansas State’s defense has been just 0.1 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and now they’re without their sack leader in Tobi Osunsanmi, who had 4 sacks in 6 games before a season-ending injury.

Kansas also has better special teams and I see good value at -3 points or less (57.3% bet at -3). Kansas is a Strong Opinion at -3 -120 odds or better, which is a 6.1% ROI. Kansas is a 53.6% bet at -3.5, which put them in Lean territory at that number (unless you have -105 odds or better).