Game Analysis

BOSTON COLLEGE (-20.5)  36   Kansas  19

Boston College has looked surprisingly great offensively so far this season, averaging 40 points and 7.1 yards per play. However, quarterback Anthony Brown’s 19.0 yards per completion will certainly come down (13.4 ypc last season) and AJ Dillon has struggled running the ball (4.2 ypr) despite facing a mediocre Virginia Tech run defense and a horrible Richmond defense. I still rate BC’s attack at 0.4 yards per play better than average, which is much better than last season (-0.3 yppl), but I don’t think the Eagles are going to be able to run up the score against a decent Kansas defense that was barely worse than average on a national scale last season (0.2 yppl worse than average) and rates about the same this season (they’ve only give up 14.5 points per game and 4.9 yppl, but against two bad offensive team).

The trouble with Les Miles’ team is an offense that has been even worse than expected in averaging just 5.6 yppl despite facing Indiana State and Coastal Carolina defensive units that would combine to allow 6.9 yppl to an average attack. I do think the Jayhawks are better than they’ve shown on offense, and BC is just 0.2 yppl better than average on defense, and my ratings call for a closer than expected outcome.