Game Analysis

Note: I released this Best Bet at couple of weeks ago when the line was +4 and the market agreed with me (closed at +1.5).

2-Star Best Bet – **Kansas (+4)  37   Arkansas  33

Both of these teams are 6-6 but Arkansas is greatly disappointed about how their season went and the Razorbacks are not likely to be as excited about playing this game as a Kansas team that hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2008. Kansas ended their season on a 3-game losing streak but that’s not a negative given that teams on a 3-games or more losing streak are 28-22-1 straight up and 30-21 ATS in bowl games. The Jayhawks are fired up to be playing in a bowl game while Arkansas has had 3 key players opt out for the NFL and another opting for season-ending surgery.

Arkansas will be without 1st-Team All-SEC center Ricky Stromberg, leading pass-catcher Jadon Haselwood, 1st-Team All-SEC LB Drew Sanders (9.5 sacks and 6 passes defended), who all have declared for the NFL draft, and #2 tackler LB Bumper Pool, who is out with a season ending injury.

Arkansas still has Matt Landers (as of December 7), who is their most explosive receiver (11.6 yards per target) but Haselwood led the Razorbacks in catches and success rate (57%) and #3 and #4 wide receivers Ketron Jackson Jr. and Warren Thompson are also no longer with the team. That leaves Landers and a group of inexperienced receivers that have combined for just 10 catches. I assume that Arkansas will lean on their strong rushing attack (243 yards per game at 5.6 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) but Kansas is not as soft against the run as their raw numbers make them appear to be, as the 208 rushing yards per game allowed at 5.3 yprp were against teams that would combine to average 5.7 yprp against an average defensive team. The Kansas run defense is actually a bit better than what Arkansas has faced on average this season and running the ball more will suit the Jayhawks just fine given that their pass defense is 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average. For the sake of this math model projection, I assume that Arkansas will run the ball the same percentage of plays as normal and the 484 yards at 6.4 yppl that I project will be worse if they decide to run it more often, which is certainly plausible.

Kansas has been great offensively this season, as the Jayhawks have averaged 6.9 yards per play against a schedule of FBS opponents that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average team. The offense is 0.3 yppl worse with Jalon Daniels at quarterback and I’ll assume he’ll play the entire game, although having Jason Bean to turn to if Daniels struggles is a plus given how well Bean played this season (9.0 yards per pass play in a 5-game stretch when Daniels was hurt). Daniels is a good runner and the Kansas running backs all averaged over 6.0 yards per run and should thrive against a depleted Arkansas defense that gave up 5.9 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 5.4 yprp against an average defense). The Razorbacks were also 0.5 yppl worse than average defending the pass and that will likely get worse without Sanders’ pass-rushing and coverage skills (I valued Sanders and Pool at 2.6 points). Kansas projects to gain 481 total yards at 7.8 yppl in this game, as I expect a lot of big plays from the Jayhawks’ offense that averaged 7.6 yppl and 44 points against the 4 mediocre defensive teams that they faced this season (West Virginia, Houston, Duke, and Oklahoma State), who are all better defensively than Arkansas, who is the worst defensive team that Kansas will face this season other than FCS team Tennessee Tech, who they hung 56 points on.

Kansas is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3.5 or more and 1-Star at +3 (-115 odds or better).