Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Kansas Team Total Under (24)

Alternate play is the game Under 50 or more

Lean – ARIZONA STATE (-2.5)  24   Kansas  17

Kansas lost their innovative offensive coordinator to Penn State and quarterback Jalon Daniels is struggling in the new system. Daniels has completed just 53% of his passes and has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play in 4 games against FBS opponents (that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB). Daniels’ numbers will likely get worse against an Arizona State defense that’s yielded just 5.1 yppp to an average slate of opposing quarterbacks – Svoboda from Wyoming is bad, but Shapen (Miss St), McCloud (Tex St) and Morton (Tex Tech) are all better than average.

Kansas still has a very good rush attack (6.0 yards per rushing play against 4 better than average run defenses that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team), but the Sun Devils have given up just 3.8 yprp to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average defense. I project a modest 5.0 yprp for Kansas in this game and expect Daniels to struggle more than usual against a very good Sun Devils’ pass defense.

Kansas has averaged just 23 points in 4 games against FBS opponents and ASU has the best defense that they’ve faced. Illinois and UNLV are the closest in defensive rating to Arizona State and the Jayhawks scored just 17 points and 20 points against those two teams.

Arizona State is just average offensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and Kansas has been good defensively, as the 5.9 yppl the Jayhawks have allowed has come against teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team.