Iowa @

Nebraska

Fri, Nov 26
10:30 AM Pacific
Rotation: 125
Odds: Nebraska -1, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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Lean – Iowa (+1)  21   NEBRASKA  18

Nebraska is 3-8 and Iowa is 9-2 yet the Cornhuskers have clearly been the better team from the line of scrimmage this season. However, Nebraska will be without their star quarterback Adrian Martinez and the Huskers continue to find ways to lose games. Part of the reason is bad special teams, which has cost them 3.6 points per game this season. Iowa, meanwhile, has the nation’s best specials teams and field position matters in what should be a low scoring game. I think the adjustment for Martinez should be more than the market has adjusted (line went from 3.5 to 1), as I value him as worth 4.7 points (3.1 for passing and 1.6 for his running).

Nebraska is also without their best defensive player, LB JoJo Domann and the Huskers allowed 8.3 yards per play last week to Wisconsin in the first game that he missed. I value Domann’s absence as worth 1.3 points, which I don’t believe is in this line, as I would have favored Nebraska by 2.1 points with Martinez playing, which would be 3.4 points (right on market) if I didn’t adjust for Domann’s absence. I favor Iowa by 2.6 points in this game with the Cornhuskers’ most important offense and defensive players out.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Iowa
  • Nebraska
IOWA
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 33.3 32.6
  • Run Yards 138.7 119.5
  • YPRP 4.2 3.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 15.8 19.6
  • Pass Att 28.0 35.2
  • Comp % 56.5% 55.8%
  • Pass Yards 179.7 218.3
  • Sacks 2.6 2.0
  • Sack Yards 17.4 13.6
  • Sack % 8.6% 5.4%
  • Pass Plays 30.6 37.2
  • Net Pass Yards 162.4 204.7
  • YPPP 5.3 5.5

Total

  • Total Plays 63.9 69.8
  • Total Yards 301.1 324.2
  • YPPL 4.7 4.6

TO


  • Int 0.6 1.9
  • Int % 2.3% 5.4%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.3 2.4
 
  • Points 25.5 16.9
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