Game Analysis
Lean – Iowa (+1) 21 NEBRASKA 18
Nebraska is 3-8 and Iowa is 9-2 yet the Cornhuskers have clearly been the better team from the line of scrimmage this season. However, Nebraska will be without their star quarterback Adrian Martinez and the Huskers continue to find ways to lose games. Part of the reason is bad special teams, which has cost them 3.6 points per game this season. Iowa, meanwhile, has the nation’s best specials teams and field position matters in what should be a low scoring game. I think the adjustment for Martinez should be more than the market has adjusted (line went from 3.5 to 1), as I value him as worth 4.7 points (3.1 for passing and 1.6 for his running).
Nebraska is also without their best defensive player, LB JoJo Domann and the Huskers allowed 8.3 yards per play last week to Wisconsin in the first game that he missed. I value Domann’s absence as worth 1.3 points, which I don’t believe is in this line, as I would have favored Nebraska by 2.1 points with Martinez playing, which would be 3.4 points (right on market) if I didn’t adjust for Domann’s absence. I favor Iowa by 2.6 points in this game with the Cornhuskers’ most important offense and defensive players out.
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.3
32.6
-
Run Yards
138.7
119.5
-
YPRP
4.2
3.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.8
19.6
-
Pass Att
28.0
35.2
-
Comp %
56.5%
55.8%
-
Pass Yards
179.7
218.3
-
Sacks
2.6
2.0
-
Sack Yards
17.4
13.6
-
Sack %
8.6%
5.4%
-
Pass Plays
30.6
37.2
-
Net Pass Yards
162.4
204.7
-
YPPP
5.3
5.5
Total
-
Total Plays
63.9
69.8
-
Total Yards
301.1
324.2
-
YPPL
4.7
4.6
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.9
-
Int %
2.3%
5.4%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.3
2.4
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.7
32.4
-
Run Yards
203.5
158.6
-
YPRP
5.4
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.2
22.6
-
Pass Att
29.1
34.3
-
Comp %
62.5%
65.8%
-
Pass Yards
270.9
222.8
-
Sacks
2.6
1.6
-
Sack Yards
14.6
12.6
-
Sack %
8.1%
4.6%
-
Pass Plays
31.6
35.9
-
Net Pass Yards
256.4
210.3
-
YPPP
8.1
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
69.4
68.3
-
Total Yards
459.8
368.8
-
YPPL
6.6
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.9
-
Int %
3.1%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.2
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/04/21 Indiana |
34-6 |
-4.0
W
|
34/30 |
180/83 |
5.3/2.8 |
2/0 |
13/15 |
28/33 |
135/160 |
0/3 |
2/1 |
4.5/4.7 |
315/243 |
4.9/3.8 |
09/11/21 @ Iowa St. |
27-17 |
+4.5
W
|
34/25 |
99/97 |
2.9/3.9 |
0/1 |
11/24 |
21/43 |
75/242 |
0/3 |
4/2 |
3.0/5.4 |
174/339 |
2.9/4.8 |
09/18/21 Kent State |
30-7 |
-22.5
W
|
38/34 |
206/117 |
5.4/3.4 |
1/1 |
25/16 |
36/23 |
209/146 |
0/0 |
0/7 |
5.8/4.9 |
415/263 |
5.6/4.1 |
09/25/21 Colorado St. |
24-14 |
-23.5
L
|
28/45 |
90/122 |
3.2/2.7 |
0/1 |
15/16 |
23/30 |
203/140 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
7.8/4.2 |
293/262 |
5.4/3.4 |
10/01/21 @ Maryland |
51-14 |
-3.5
W
|
40/17 |
162/97 |
4.1/5.7 |
0/1 |
27/21 |
38/37 |
292/201 |
0/6 |
2/0 |
7.3/5.4 |
454/298 |
5.7/5.5 |
10/09/21 Penn St. |
23-20 |
-1.5
W
|
38/31 |
141/124 |
3.7/4.0 |
0/0 |
17/27 |
31/46 |
172/248 |
1/4 |
4/1 |
4.9/5.3 |
313/372 |
4.3/4.8 |
10/16/21 Purdue |
7-24 |
-11.5
L
|
25/32 |
106/94 |
4.2/2.9 |
0/1 |
17/31 |
32/43 |
167/370 |
4/0 |
4/1 |
4.6/8.4 |
273/464 |
4.5/6.1 |
10/30/21 @ Wisconsin |
7-27 |
+3.5
L
|
24/46 |
54/169 |
2.3/3.7 |
3/0 |
12/11 |
25/22 |
90/104 |
0/0 |
6/0 |
2.9/4.7 |
144/273 |
2.6/4.0 |
11/06/21 @ Northwestern |
17-12 |
-12.0
L
|
33/28 |
198/117 |
6.0/4.2 |
0/0 |
20/25 |
32/44 |
168/246 |
0/3 |
2/3 |
4.9/5.2 |
366/363 |
5.5/4.8 |
11/13/21 Minnesota |
27-22 |
-4.0
W
|
25/48 |
71/211 |
2.8/4.4 |
1/0 |
11/14 |
24/30 |
206/166 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
8.6/5.2 |
277/377 |
5.7/4.7 |
11/20/21 Illinois |
33-23 |
-12.5
L
|
47/23 |
219/83 |
4.7/3.6 |
0/0 |
6/16 |
18/36 |
69/229 |
1/2 |
2/2 |
3.5/6.0 |
288/312 |
4.3/5.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/28/21 @ Illinois |
22-30 |
-7.0
L
|
33/44 |
211/186 |
6.4/4.2 |
1/1 |
16/15 |
32/19 |
197/137 |
0/0 |
5/3 |
5.3/6.2 |
408/323 |
5.8/4.9 |
09/04/21 Fordham |
52-7 |
0.0
W
|
64/26 |
341/134 |
5.3/5.2 |
2/0 |
22/18 |
30/30 |
317/159 |
0/3 |
1/1 |
10.2/5.1 |
658/293 |
6.9/5.1 |
09/11/21 Buffalo |
28-3 |
-14.0
W
|
41/33 |
220/135 |
5.4/4.1 |
1/0 |
14/27 |
20/50 |
255/224 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
12.8/4.5 |
475/359 |
7.8/4.3 |
09/18/21 @ Oklahoma |
16-23 |
+22.5
W
|
33/35 |
123/194 |
3.7/5.5 |
0/0 |
19/24 |
25/34 |
261/214 |
1/0 |
5/0 |
8.7/6.3 |
384/408 |
6.1/5.9 |
09/25/21 @ Michigan St. |
20-23 |
+3.5
W
|
41/27 |
222/89 |
5.4/3.3 |
1/0 |
25/14 |
36/23 |
221/165 |
1/1 |
7/3 |
5.1/6.3 |
443/254 |
5.3/4.8 |
10/02/21 Northwestern |
56-7 |
-11.0
W
|
52/22 |
437/81 |
8.4/3.7 |
0/1 |
15/25 |
21/40 |
230/223 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
11.0/5.1 |
667/304 |
9.1/4.6 |
10/09/21 Michigan |
29-32 |
+3.0
T
|
31/39 |
142/223 |
4.6/5.7 |
1/0 |
18/22 |
28/39 |
289/242 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
10.0/6.1 |
431/465 |
7.2/5.9 |
10/16/21 @ Minnesota |
23-30 |
-4.5
L
|
29/39 |
155/202 |
5.3/5.2 |
0/0 |
18/21 |
33/25 |
222/202 |
0/2 |
2/1 |
6.3/7.8 |
377/404 |
5.9/6.2 |
10/30/21 Purdue |
23-28 |
-7.5
L
|
28/36 |
136/130 |
4.9/3.6 |
0/0 |
14/34 |
29/45 |
266/223 |
4/0 |
1/2 |
8.9/4.7 |
402/353 |
6.9/4.3 |
11/06/21 Ohio St. |
17-26 |
+14.5
W
|
29/26 |
144/111 |
5.0/4.3 |
0/0 |
16/36 |
31/54 |
217/385 |
1/2 |
5/2 |
6.0/6.9 |
361/496 |
5.6/6.0 |
11/20/21 @ Wisconsin |
28-35 |
+9.5
W
|
34/29 |
107/259 |
3.1/8.9 |
0/0 |
23/12 |
35/18 |
345/139 |
2/0 |
1/1 |
9.6/7.3 |
452/398 |
6.5/8.3 |