Indiana vs

Tennessee

at Jacksonville
Thu, Jan 2
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation:
Odds: Tennessee -2.5, Total: 55.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (55.5) – Tennessee (-3)  27   Indiana  23

Thursday, January 2 – 4 pm Pacific

Tennessee’s only win in their first 5 games of the season was against an FCS team as a 31.5 point favorite and one of the losses was as a 25.5-point favorite against Georgia State. Tennessee was expected to be good this season and their poor start led to the Vols being underrated the rest of the season and they enter this game having won and covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games, with their only loss being at Alabama.

The Volunteers have a good pass attack (7.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) and overall their offense rates at 0.3 yards per play better than average with Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback. That attack has a slight advantage over an Indiana defense that is 0.2 yppl better than average, having allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. Tennessee’s top receiver Jauan Jennings, who averages 11.0 yards per target, has been suspended for the first-half of this game, which is worth 0.4 points. My math projects 344 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Vols in this game.

Indiana’s offense was 0.6 yppl better than average during the regular season but quarterback Peyton Ramsey doesn’t throw the ball down the field as much as injured starter Michael Penix did and top running back Stevie Scott is listed as questionable for this game, which hurts the rush attack a bit if he can’t play (I’ll assume a 50% chance he plays). The Hoosiers’ offense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average entering this game and that unit is at a disadvantage against a solid Tennessee defense that is 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average, 0.8 yards per pass play better than average and 0.7 yards per play better than average overall (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense). I project 357 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Hoosiers in this game.

Overall, my math favors Tennessee by 3.7 points with a total of 49.5 points and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 55 points or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Indiana
  • Tennessee
IND
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 30.4 36.9
  • Run Yards 140.7 177.7
  • YPRP 5.1 5.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 25.9 19.4
  • Pass Att 40.2 31.4
  • Comp % 64.5% 61.8%
  • Pass Yards 286.2 265.1
  • Sacks 2.6 1.8
  • Sack Yards 15.0 11.8
  • Sack % 6.2% 5.5%
  • Pass Plays 42.8 33.2
  • Net Pass Yards 271.2 253.4
  • YPPP 6.3 7.6

Total

  • Total Plays 73.2 70.1
  • Total Yards 427.0 442.8
  • YPPL 5.8 6.3

TO


  • Int 1.0 0.8
  • Int % 2.4% 2.7%
  • Fumbles 0.7 1.0
  • Turnovers 1.7 1.9
 
  • Points 32.6 24.5
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