Game Analysis

Ohio State (-4) vs  Indiana

I get Ohio State by 3.9 points in this game with a total of 47.0 points.

Ohio State is deserving of the #1 ranking but the Buckeyes could be upset if quarterback Julian Sayin has an off night during their playoff run, as the Buckeyes are a mediocre running team (just 5.1 yprp). Sayin and his elite receiving corps will be asked to carry the offense in this game against an Indiana defense that is elite defending the run (just 3.9 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team). The Hoosiers are very good defending the pass too (1.5 yards per pass play better than average) but Sayin has been 2.5 yppp better than average and rates a bit better after adjusting for the games that receivers Carnell Tate (missed 3 games) and Jeremiah Smith (1 game) missed. I project 354 yards at 6.0 yppl for Ohio State in this game (adjusted for playing in a domed stadium).

The strength of the Buckeyes is a defense that’s allowed just 8.5 points per game and rated at 2.2 yppl better than average with their starters in the game (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Indiana has a better offense than Ohio State’s offense, as the Hoosiers have averaged 6.9 yppl with Fernando Mendoza in the game against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Ohio State’s defense has an advantage but Indiana played relatively well in two games against elite defensive teams – averaging 6.0 yppl against Iowa and Oregon (both on the road), which is 1.9 yppl better than an average team would perform in road games against those two defensive units. Last season the offense was relatively worse against elite defensive teams but that has not been the case so far this season for the Hoosiers. However, Ohio State’s defense performed relatively better against better offensive teams this season and I project just 292 yards at 5.1 yppl for Indiana in this game.

Ohio State has the edge from the line of scrimmage but Indiana has better special teams and a lower projected interception rate and I get Ohio State by 3.9 points in this game with a total of 47.0 points.