Indiana @

Illinois

Sat, Nov 11
BTN
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 191
Odds: Illinois -4.5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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Lean – ILLINOIS (-4.5)  26   Indiana  17

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is out and backup John Paddock, while the hero on the game winning drive last week, was horrible at Ball State last season, averaging just 5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The talent around Paddock is obviously better at Illinois but I’m still skeptical and I’ve dropped the Illini pass attack rating a full yard per pass play below Altmyer. However, Illinois should be able to run the ball very well against a soft Indiana defensive front that’s been 0.3 yards per rushing play below average and I project 5.5 yards per play for Indiana in this game.

The Hoosiers, meanwhile, are projected to average only 4.5 yards per play in this game with their two of their top three receivers, Camper and Cooper, out. The Hoosiers’ pass attack will struggle much more than usual without those two key playmakers, who combine for 9.0 yards per target, and Indiana’s horrible rush attack (just 3.7 yards per rushing play) is projected to average only 3.6 yprp in this game against a good Illini run defense.

The math, even with the huge downgrade for Paddock, favors Illinois by 6.6 points, and Indiana applies to a 38-102-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset home win over Wisconsin.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Indiana
  • Illinois
IND
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 29.6 34.9
  • Run Yards 109.3 183.9
  • YPRP 3.7 5.3




Pass





  • Pass Comp 16.3 18.6
  • Pass Att 28.9 30.1
  • Comp % 56.3% 61.8%
  • Pass Yards 183.4 226.6
  • Sacks 2.1 1.9
  • Sack Yards 16.5 13.1
  • Sack % 6.9% 5.9%
  • Pass Plays 31.0 32.0
  • Net Pass Yards 166.9 213.5
  • YPPP 5.4 6.7

Total

  • Total Plays 60.6 66.9
  • Total Yards 276.1 397.4
  • YPPL 4.6 5.9

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.8
  • Int % 2.6% 2.5%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.1
  • Turnovers 1.4 0.9
 
  • Points 18.8 28.0
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