Game Analysis

Idaho Potato Bowl

Thursday, December 22 – 4 pm Pacific

Colorado State (-15)  39   Idaho  24

Both of these teams enter this game on a 7 game spread win streak and I really can’t pick a side. Colorado State is a much better team and the Rams hit their stride late in the season when opening day starting quarterback Nick Stevens regained his starting role after losing it after a horrific week 1 performance against Pac 12 power Colorado (Stevens totaled just 15 yards on 22 pass plays with 2 interceptions). Stevens got his job back with freshman Colin Hill was injured and he was incredibly efficient over those last 6 games as a starter – completing 72% of his passes for 10.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). The Rams’ 3-headed rushing attack averaged 234 yards at 5.7 yards per rushing play and sets up Stevens in good play-action pass situations. CSU is projected to gain 502 total yards at 7.6 yards per play in this game against an Idaho defense that allowed 6.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The Vandals do defend the run at a decent level (just 0.1 yprp worse than average) and Colorado State ran the ball 63% of the time over those last 7 games, so they match up relatively well in this game.

Idaho’s offense is led by senior quarterback Matt Linehan, who played well down the stretch against mostly bad defensive teams but still posted below average numbers when compensating for the strength of opposing defenses. Linehan averaged 6.6 yards per pass play but faced teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback, and the Vandals’ rushing attack is of no help to him (4.5 yprp against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp). Overall Idaho’s attack is 0.6 yards per play worse than average (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and the Vandals are projected to gain just 348 yards at 5.6 yppl against a Rams’ defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl).

Based on season stats the math would have favored Colorado State by 11.8 points but the Rams are better now with Stevens at quarterback and the math favors the Rams by 15 ½ points. CSU slowed down their pace on offense when Stevens took over, as they ran the ball more than they did earlier in the season, and Idaho also plays at a slow pace. Because of the slow pace by both teams that total on this game is lower than it seems it should be. My model actually predicts just 62 ½ total points but I don’t want to lean under given how efficiently both teams were scoring late in the season. I have no opinion on the side or the total on this game.