Game Analysis

Lean – TCU (-16.5)  35   Houston  14

Houston scored 33 points in a home win over lowly Rice and has averaged just 4.8 points in their other 4 games, including being shutout by a bad Cincinnati defense two weeks ago (and shutout again last week by ISU).

TCU has a better than average defense that should contain a struggling Cougars’ attack that may be without WR Joseph Manjack IV again this week. Manjack leads Houston with 11.2 yards per target and his backups have been horrible with Marquis Shoulders out for the season. Excluding the other starting wide receiver Stephon Johnson, the other remaining wideouts are averaging just 4.1 yards per target.

Houston has a good defense (0.8 yppl better than average so far this season), but it’s not nearly as good as a TCU offense that has averaged 6.6 yards per play against 4 FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack.

I’d favor TCU by 16.4 points if Manjack plays at is 100% healthy and I get Horned Frogs by 18.6 points if Manjack is out again. I’ll Lean with TCU (at -17 or less) regardless, as the Frogs apply to a 90-22-2 ATS big home favorite momentum situation that is based on last week’s upset win at Kansas.