Houston vs

Army

at Fort Worth
Sat, Dec 22
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 223
Odds: Army -3.5, Total: 65.5

Game Analysis

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Best Bet – *Army (-3.5)  32   Houston  21

Best Bet – **Under (65.5)

The Best Bets on Army and Under are both mostly based on Houston being without their star quarterback D’Eriq King, who averaged an impressive 8.1 yards per pass play (against FBS opponents) and added 736 yards on 93 runs. King’s backup is freshman Clayton Tune, who has completed just 38 of his 85 passes (44.7%) despite having 23 of those attempts against horrible FCS team Texas Southern – a team that would allow over 10 yards per pass play against an average FBS quarterback. Tune took over midway through the second to last regular season game against Tulane and he completed just 24 of 58 passes (41.4%) for just 5.0 yards per pass play against Tulane and Memphis, who would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. The 31 points that Houston scored in their 21 point loss to Memphis is misleading, as the Cougars averaged only 4.7 yards per play in that game. Houston has gone from having a well-balanced and very potent attack to being significantly worse than average with Tune at quarterback. I suspect that Tune may improve some with the extra bowl practices but a quarterback that completed only 45% of his passes, including just 52% against a horrible FCS defense, is simply inaccurate and I don’t think accuracy can be fixed over the course of a few weeks.

Army’s defense is 0.3 yards per play below average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense) but their option offense possesses the ball for so long that opponents have fewer opportunities to score. The result is a unit that allowed just 18.0 points per game and held Oklahoma’s historic offense to just 21 points in regulation (lost by 7 in OT). If Tune plays at the level he played over those last two games (which is actually much better than if I added his compensated stats from the game against Texas Southern) then the Cougars would average only 5.3 yards per play with just 53 plays from scrimmage expected.

Army’s option attack averaged just over 300 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per rushing play and Kelvin Hopkins Jr. averaged 9.7 yards per pass play on the 6 to 10 passes per game that the Black Knights attempted. While the Army offense was worse than average on a yards per play basis (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) they were so good at moving the chains and possessing the ball that the Knights averaged 20.4 more plays per game than their opponents. A big part of that was being smart about going for it on 4th down more than any team in the nation while being extremely successful in doing so (converted 31 of 36 4th downs).

Army’s option attack is likely to perform a bit better than normal against a Houston team that will be without all 3 starters along the defensive line. The Cougars began the season with one of the most dominating defensive lines in the nation, anchored by two time All-American Ed Oliver. Oliver sat out 4 games after getting injured against Navy, returned half-heartedly against Memphis in the regular season finale and has decided to bid adieu to his teammates to prepare for the NFL draft. Fellow starters Payton Turner and Jerard Carter are also out, as is #4 defensive linemen Isaiah Chambers, who has been out since mid-season. Houston’s dominating defensive front yielded only 3.4 yards per rushing play over the first half of the season (to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp) but then gave up 372 rushing yards at 5.8 yprp to Navy in the game Oliver was injured and surrendered an average of 276 rushing yards at 6.1 yprp in the final 5 games of the season (to teams that would average 5.5 yprp against an average defense). Houston went from having one of the best run defenses in the nation to now being worse than average after Oliver was injured. Carter was out for 3 of those games and Turner joined him on the sideline for the Memphis game in which they gave up 417 rushing yards at 7.6 yprp. Houston didn’t really perform that well against Navy’s option attack when they had all 3 defensive line starters and I suspect they’ll struggle to keep Army off the field in this game with 3 backups on the line. Army doesn’t have a lot of big rushing plays, which is another reason they have the ball for so long (38:51 average time of possession led the nation) but I project an efficient 5.3 yards per rushing play for the Cadets in this game and for them to run 23 to 24 more plays than Houston will.

Overall, I have Army at 443 total yards at 5.8 yards per play and the math predicts a 12 point win and just 48 total points. There is a chance that Tune will improve some with extra practice time but Army and the Under both look like very good plays in this game. It also doesn’t hurt that Military academies are 33-14 ATS in bowl games, including 20-4 ATS if they have a win percentage greater than .667. I suppose Air Force, Army and Navy are more disciplined in their preparation. I’ll go Under in a 2-Star Best Bet at 63 points or less and for 1-Star down to 62 points (Strong Opinion Under down to 60). I’ll also play Army for a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less. That would have been a 2-Star play on Army had I not also played the Under but part of the reason I like the Under is the same reason I see value on Army (i.e Tune sucks) so the plays are correlated and 3-Stars is the most I wanted to risk. If the line on the side does not come back down to -4 or less, then Army would still be a Strong Opinion from -4.5 to -6.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Houston
  • Army
HOU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.2 45.3
  • Run Yards 221.6 211.4
  • YPRP 5.9 4.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 20.9 23.3
  • Pass Att 35.6 38.2
  • Comp % 58.7% 60.9%
  • Pass Yards 295.5 287.7
  • Sacks 1.8 2.0
  • Sack Yards 11.3 12.2
  • Sack % 4.9% 5.0%
  • Pass Plays 37.5 40.2
  • Net Pass Yards 284.2 275.6
  • YPPP 7.6 6.9

Total

  • Total Plays 76.6 85.5
  • Total Yards 517.0 499.1
  • YPPL 6.7 5.8

TO


  • Int 0.6 1.2
  • Int % 1.8% 3.1%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.4 1.9
 
  • Points 46.4 34.4
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