Game Analysis

ARIZONA STATE (-7)  25   Houston  20

Arizona State is diminished offensively without leading receiver Jordyn Tyson, who is out after getting injured late in last week’s game. Tyson has been targeted 93 times in 7 games, as he’s the only reliable wide receiver that quarterback Sam Leavitt has to throw to. The rest of the wide receivers have a combined success rate of just 24% (48% for Tyson, despite being double-teamed often). The lack of a second receiver (and no Cam Skattebo to throw to out of the backfield this season) has lead to Leavitt being worse than average passing this season (5.6 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and now he’s without his only viable target on the outside.

ASU is also likely going to be without edge rusher Prince Dorbah, who leads the defense with 7.5 total tackles for loss (4 of them sacks).

The line should have moved more than it has (it moved from 7.5 to 7), as I value Tyson as worth 1.8 points and Dorbah as worth 0.9 points. There isn’t enough value to make Houston a bet here, but the Cougars are the right side.