Hawaii @

San Diego St.

Sat, Oct 5
CBS Sports Network
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 397
Odds: San Diego St. -2, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (48.5) – Hawaii (+2)  21   SAN DIEGO STATE  20

Hawaii games have averaged 41.3 total points and San Diego State’s games have averaged just 41.0 total points per game. My math model, which uses compensated statistics to project a boxscore and then project a game score, comes up with just 41.2 total points for this game.

Both teams are bad offensively and have been decent on defense so far. Hawaii has averaged 5.6 yards per play but they’ve faced teams that would allow 6.9 yppl to an average team. The Aztecs’ offense, meanwhile, has averaged 5.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average attack.

I just don’t see either team reaching 24 points in this game. In fact, these two teams have played a combined total of 5 FBS opponents and have averaged just 11.4 points in those games.

The Under is a Lean at 47 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Hawaii
  • San Diego St.
HAW
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 22.3 28.5
  • Run Yards 109.8 136.3
  • YPRP 4.9 4.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 24.5 17.3
  • Pass Att 40.3 29.5
  • Comp % 60.9% 58.5%
  • Pass Yards 262.8 186.3
  • Sacks 2.0 2.0
  • Sack Yards 12.5 9.0
  • Sack % 4.7% 6.3%
  • Pass Plays 42.3 31.5
  • Net Pass Yards 250.3 177.3
  • YPPP 5.9 5.6

Total

  • Total Plays 64.5 60.0
  • Total Yards 360.0 313.5
  • YPPL 5.6 5.2

TO


  • Int 1.3 0.8
  • Int % 3.1% 2.5%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.5 1.5
 
  • Points 24.3 17.0
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