Game Analysis

Houston (-7) 32  Hawaii  25

As of now my math favors Houston by 11 points after adjusting for 3 key Cougars opting out to pursue their potential NFL careers. Receiver Marquez Stevenson is third on the team in receptions but he his 11.0 yards per target is significantly better than the 7.5 YPT average of the other wide receivers and he’s worth about a point to the offense (and also has a TD on a kick return this season). Star DE Payton Turner is out after leading the team in sacks (5) and total tackles for loss (10.5) despite playing in only 5 of the Cougars’ 7 games this season. And SS Grant Stuard is also not going to play and his 61 tackles are more than twice as much as the #2 tackler on the team. I calculate Turner and Stuard to be worth 2.3 points with Turner being most of that adjustment. The Cougars averaged only 2 sacks in the two games that Turner has missed (3.6 sacks per game with him) and allowed 7.1 yards per rushing play in those two games.

In addition to the 3 potential NFL players that have opted-out, the Cougars will also have 15 to 20 players ineligible to play due mostly to academic issues according to head coach Dana Holgorsen. The list of those players is not available but should become apparent after the Cougars take the field for warmups. I’ll monitor the internet to see if any other significant players are out and will have a predicted score once that information becomes available.

Note: Still no word on what other Houston players might be out today but the game is approaching. The model favors Houston by 11 with a total of 58 points with no additional key absences for Houston and it’s unlikely that any missing players would add up to 4 points, so I’m guessing the math will end up favoring Houston by more than the current line of 7 points. However, Houston applies to a 9-35 ATS bowl favorite situation and Hawaii is reportedly very excited about playing in this bowl game. I think it’s best to pass.