Game Analysis
Lean – Under (46.5) – FRESNO STATE 26 Hawaii 14
Hawaii has faced 5 teams with mediocre to better than average defensive units and the Warriors have scored an average of just 13.4 points in those games (13 each vs UCLA and Sam Houston, 24 vs San Diego State, 7 vs Boise and 10 against Washington State). Fresno is the second best defense that Hawaii has faced this season (UCLA is the best) and my model is calling for just 14 points for the Warriors.
Fresno, meanwhile, has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense) and Hawaii is decent one defense, having allowed an average of just 22.3 points per game and 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team.
Hawaii has gone under in 6 of 8 games this season with their 2 overs by only 2.5 points and 5 points and Fresno has gone under in 3 consecutive games (and 5 of 8 for the season). My model projects just 40 total points and the Under qualifies as a Lean at Under 46 points or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
22.4
30.1
-
Run Yards
124.6
147.1
-
YPRP
5.6
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.1
20.6
-
Pass Att
37.4
30.7
-
Comp %
61.8%
67.0%
-
Pass Yards
247.6
232.4
-
Sacks
4.0
1.9
-
Sack Yards
22.1
8.6
-
Sack %
9.7%
5.7%
-
Pass Plays
41.4
32.6
-
Net Pass Yards
225.4
223.9
-
YPPP
5.4
6.9
Total
-
Total Plays
63.9
62.7
-
Total Yards
350.0
371.0
-
YPPL
5.5
5.9
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.6
-
Int %
3.0%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.4
29.1
-
Run Yards
131.3
149.0
-
YPRP
4.1
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.9
19.0
-
Pass Att
34.0
35.8
-
Comp %
67.3%
53.1%
-
Pass Yards
259.9
211.0
-
Sacks
2.0
1.8
-
Sack Yards
18.1
13.0
-
Sack %
5.6%
4.7%
-
Pass Plays
36.0
37.5
-
Net Pass Yards
241.8
198.0
-
YPPP
6.7
5.3
Total
-
Total Plays
68.4
66.6
-
Total Yards
373.0
347.0
-
YPPL
5.5
5.2
TO
-
Int
1.3
1.5
-
Int %
3.7%
4.2%
-
Fumbles
0.1
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.4
2.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/24/24 Delaware State |
35-14 |
0.0
W
|
25/29 |
137/125 |
5.5/4.3 |
0/0 |
17/17 |
34/29 |
195/134 |
0/0 |
1/5 |
5.6/3.9 |
332/259 |
5.5/4.1 |
08/31/24 UCLA |
13-16 |
+14.0
W
|
23/19 |
77/73 |
3.3/3.8 |
1/0 |
24/19 |
41/38 |
191/270 |
2/2 |
5/1 |
4.2/6.9 |
268/343 |
3.9/5.9 |
09/14/24 @ Sam Houston State |
13-31 |
+4.5
L
|
19/45 |
74/257 |
3.9/5.7 |
0/1 |
21/15 |
42/23 |
236/165 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
5.4/7.2 |
310/422 |
4.9/6.2 |
09/21/24 Northern Iowa |
36-7 |
0.0
W
|
22/21 |
151/90 |
6.9/4.3 |
0/2 |
36/18 |
44/28 |
379/140 |
2/0 |
0/2 |
8.6/4.7 |
530/230 |
8.0/4.5 |
10/05/24 @ San Diego St. |
24-27 |
+2.0
L
|
24/32 |
118/113 |
4.9/3.5 |
0/0 |
26/24 |
44/33 |
238/210 |
1/0 |
5/2 |
4.9/6.0 |
356/323 |
4.9/4.8 |
10/12/24 Boise St. |
7-28 |
+20.5
L
|
15/37 |
61/243 |
4.1/6.6 |
0/0 |
21/17 |
36/25 |
218/212 |
0/0 |
9/2 |
4.8/7.9 |
279/455 |
4.7/7.1 |
10/19/24 @ Washington St. |
10-42 |
+18.5
L
|
19/32 |
130/138 |
6.8/4.3 |
2/0 |
20/25 |
30/29 |
178/300 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
5.4/9.4 |
308/438 |
5.9/6.8 |
10/26/24 Nevada |
34-13 |
-2.5
W
|
35/25 |
261/116 |
7.5/4.6 |
0/1 |
14/26 |
25/39 |
138/270 |
1/1 |
4/3 |
4.8/6.4 |
399/386 |
6.2/5.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 @ Michigan |
10-30 |
+21.0
W
|
19/32 |
39/160 |
2.1/5.0 |
0/0 |
22/16 |
36/27 |
205/112 |
2/1 |
3/1 |
5.3/4.0 |
244/272 |
4.2/4.5 |
09/07/24 Sacramento State |
46-30 |
0.0
W
|
42/25 |
172/114 |
4.1/4.6 |
1/2 |
24/22 |
35/50 |
311/261 |
2/1 |
1/1 |
8.6/5.1 |
483/375 |
6.2/4.9 |
09/14/24 New Mexico St. |
48-0 |
-19.5
W
|
42/30 |
227/97 |
5.4/3.2 |
0/0 |
14/13 |
25/29 |
237/93 |
0/3 |
1/2 |
9.1/3.0 |
464/190 |
6.8/3.1 |
09/21/24 @ New Mexico |
38-21 |
-13.0
W
|
31/28 |
103/145 |
3.3/5.2 |
0/1 |
27/33 |
34/53 |
248/338 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
7.1/6.4 |
351/483 |
5.3/6.0 |
09/28/24 @ UNLV |
14-59 |
+1.5
L
|
27/39 |
74/252 |
2.7/6.5 |
0/0 |
29/14 |
45/17 |
312/198 |
2/0 |
4/0 |
6.4/11.6 |
386/450 |
5.1/8.0 |
10/12/24 Washington St. |
17-25 |
+3.5
L
|
25/30 |
142/152 |
5.7/5.1 |
0/1 |
24/17 |
36/35 |
196/144 |
2/1 |
2/4 |
5.2/3.7 |
338/296 |
5.4/4.3 |
10/18/24 @ Nevada |
24-21 |
-3.0
T
|
36/33 |
145/146 |
4.0/4.4 |
0/0 |
13/16 |
20/25 |
171/177 |
1/0 |
2/4 |
7.8/6.1 |
316/323 |
5.4/5.2 |
10/26/24 San Jose St. |
33-10 |
-4.5
W
|
37/16 |
148/126 |
4.0/7.9 |
0/0 |
30/21 |
41/50 |
254/261 |
1/4 |
2/2 |
5.9/5.0 |
402/387 |
5.0/5.7 |