Hawaii @

Fresno St.

Sat, Nov 2
Spectrum Sports
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 393
Odds: Fresno St. -12, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (46.5) – FRESNO STATE  26   Hawaii  14

Hawaii has faced 5 teams with mediocre to better than average defensive units and the Warriors have scored an average of just 13.4 points in those games (13 each vs UCLA and Sam Houston, 24 vs San Diego State, 7 vs Boise and 10 against Washington State). Fresno is the second best defense that Hawaii has faced this season (UCLA is the best) and my model is calling for just 14 points for the Warriors.

Fresno, meanwhile, has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense) and Hawaii is decent one defense, having allowed an average of just 22.3 points per game and 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team.

Hawaii has gone under in 6 of 8 games this season with their 2 overs by only 2.5 points and 5 points and Fresno has gone under in 3 consecutive games (and 5 of 8 for the season). My model projects just 40 total points and the Under qualifies as a Lean at Under 46 points or more.

 

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Hawaii
  • Fresno St.
HAW
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 22.4 30.1
  • Run Yards 124.6 147.1
  • YPRP 5.6 4.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 23.1 20.6
  • Pass Att 37.4 30.7
  • Comp % 61.8% 67.0%
  • Pass Yards 247.6 232.4
  • Sacks 4.0 1.9
  • Sack Yards 22.1 8.6
  • Sack % 9.7% 5.7%
  • Pass Plays 41.4 32.6
  • Net Pass Yards 225.4 223.9
  • YPPP 5.4 6.9

Total

  • Total Plays 63.9 62.7
  • Total Yards 350.0 371.0
  • YPPL 5.5 5.9

TO


  • Int 1.1 0.6
  • Int % 3.0% 1.9%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.6
  • Turnovers 1.6 1.1
 
  • Points 21.5 22.3
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