Game Analysis

Texas (-2.5/-3)  28   Georgia  24

Texas’ only loss this season was a 15-30 home loss to Georgia, which is a result that is hard to ignore. However, it was just one game and the biggest issue for Texas in that game (the 7 sacks they allowed) is something that I think is unlikely to repeat itself. Texas only allowed 17 total sacks in their other 17 games and allowed just 1 each to Oklahoma and Florida, who both averaged at least 0.5 sacks per game more than Georgia did.

I’ll assume Texas fixes that problem in pass protection after dissecting the film and if Georgia’s pass rush is not the problem it was in the first game then the Longhorns should win this rematch.

Texas is not quite as good offensively as Georgia (0.2 yppl worse) but the Longhorns have a significantly better defense than the Bulldogs. The Texas defense has been 1.8 yppl better than average (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense) and they were better than that against Georgia, yielding just 4.1 yppl in that game to a Bulldogs’ offense that would average 6.7 yppl on the road against an average defense. The Georgia defense, meanwhile, has been only 0.9 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average defense).

Georgia does play relatively better against better teams, for which I adjusted 3 points for, and I’m giving the Bulldogs 1 point for playing in Atlanta. Georgia is obviously capable of beating any team but they’ve been incredibly inconsistent this season and their median performance level is not as good as Texas.