Game Analysis

Georgia Tech (-2.5)  25   Vanderbilt  24

Georgia Tech’s offense was very good until starting quarterback Haynes King was injured late in week 7 and couldn’t throw the ball for the next 4 games (he missed 2 and played sparingly as a runner in two others). King was obviously healthy in their Yellow Jackets’ 42-44 overtime loss to Georgia, as he averaged 8.2 yards per pass play and ran for 111 yards. Georgia Tech’s offense was 1.1 yppl better than average in the 7 games against FBS teams with Haynes healthy, averaging 6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense. That unit will be without top WR Eric Singleton Jr but his mediocre 8.0 yards per target and 47% success rate likely won’t be missed, as the rest of the available wide receivers, including #2 Malik Rutherford (took his name out of the portal and is listed on the depth chart), combined to average 8.1 yards per target with a 48% success rate. Starting TE Jackson Hawes is also out, but his 9.9 YPT on 19 targets is below the 10.8 YPT on 13 targets by the other tight ends. Left tackle Corey Robinson (transfer) and Jordan Brown, who started the season as the LT, are both absent from the depth chart and I’ve adjusted 0.8 points for that position. Overall, the Georgia Tech offense get a bit of an upgrade from their season rating with King healthy.

Vanderbilt’s defense was better in point allowed (25.2 ppg against FBS teams) than they were in yards per play allowed, as the Commodores gave up 6.4 yppl to FBS teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average defense. Vandy is a bit better than average defending the run, but they were often torched through the air by good quarterbacks and allowed 7.5 yards per pass play to FBS quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average defense. It looks like star S De’Rickey Wright wants to put more of himself on tape to help his NFL stock, as he’s listed on the recently released depth chart and will also take part in the East-West Shrine game after the bowl season. Assuming Wright plays the entire starting defense will take part in this game. However, that defense isn’t good enough to keep Georgia Tech from moving the ball consistently.

Vanderbilt’s offense was impressive at times, but the Commodores were just a bit better than average overall this season with 5.5 yppl coming against FBS teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Vandy will be down one starter, as tackle Gunnar Hansen has decided to transfer and is not on the depth chart.

Georgia Tech’s was 0.3 yards per rushing play and 0.3 yards per pass play better than average this season and rates at about the same level as the average defense that Vanderbilt faced this season. The Yellow Jackets will be without edge rusher Romello Height, who started every game and led the team in total tackles for loss (6.5 TFL, 2.5 of them sacks). Safety Taye Seymore, who started 7 games, is also out but the defense played at about the same level in the games he didn’t play this season. I value those absences at 0.9 points. The Vandy offense and the Georgia Tech defense rate about the same.

Georgia Tech is no doubt a better team from the line of scrimmage, but Vanderbilt has outstanding special teams units while the Yellow Jackets are worse than average in special teams. Overall, the math favors Georgia Tech by 4 points but Vanderbilt applies to a 57-16 ATS bowl angle that plays on teams that lost 9 or more games the previous season. Those teams tend to be more excited about playing in a bowl game after being so bad the previous season and that angle has already won with Sam Houston State this year.