Georgia St.
@ 
Army
Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – ARMY (-7.5 -115) 32 Georgia State 18
Georgia State is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS (covered by ½ a point vs UNC) and I don’t see things getting any better for the Panthers this week. Georgia State’s sub-par defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team) isn’t likely to slow down Army’s option attack that’s averaged 38 points and 7.5 yards per play in 3 games this season (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppl to an average team). I don’t expect Army to continue to be as good offensively as they’ve been but I do project 420 total yards at 6.7 yppl for the Cadets in this game.
Georgia State has averaged 5.6 yppl and 26.8 points but the Panthers’ offense has faced teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppl and 39.5 points to an average offensive team. The Panthers are decent defending the run (only 0.2 yprp worse than average) but they’ve struggled in pass defense (8.3 yards per pass play allowed) and Army can hurt teams like that with their occasional deep pass plays (they’ve averaged 21.8 yards per completion since the beginning of last season).
The expected rain and some wind certainly favors the team that runs the ball 80% of the time and I’ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at -8 or less.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Georgia St.
- Army
Rush
- Run Plays 43.3 34.8
- Run Yards 202.8 171.0
- YPRP 4.7 4.9
Pass
- Pass Comp 14.8 23.8
- Pass Att 28.0 33.8
- Comp % 52.7% 70.4%
- Pass Yards 216.5 304.0
- Sacks 1.5 1.8
- Sack Yards 8.8 9.8
- Sack % 5.1% 4.9%
- Pass Plays 29.5 35.5
- Net Pass Yards 207.8 294.3
- YPPP 7.0 8.3
Total
- Total Plays 72.8 70.3
- Total Yards 410.5 465.3
- YPPL 5.6 6.6
TO
- Int 1.0 1.0
- Int % 3.6% 3.0%
- Fumbles 0.8 0.5
- Turnovers 1.8 1.5
- Points 26.8 38.3