Georgia St. @

Arkansas St.

Thu, Oct 15
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 105
Odds: Arkansas St. -3.5, Total: 72

Game Analysis

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ARKANSAS STATE (-3.5)  38   Georgia State  35

Georgia State has only played two games but the Panthers have shown signs of significant improvement in their pass defense, which is beneficial against an Arkansas State team that averages 44 pass plays per game. Thus far, the Georgia State defense has allowed just 56.2% completions and only 5.1 yards per pass play to two pretty good passing teams (Louisiana-Lafayette and ECU). Cornerbacks Quavian White and Jaylon Jones have already combined for 10 passes defended in two gamers, which is nearly as many as the 13 PDs they combined for all of last season as starters (each started 9 games in 2019). Arkansas State’s two-headed quarterback duo has combined for 7.5 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average team) and the Red Wolves are running their offense at a blistering pace (3.0 plays per minute of possession). I’ll assume that Georgia State’s true level of pass defense is between what they’ve shown so far this season and what I had expected from them prior to the season, which would put them around the national average. With that being the case I project Arkansas State at 38 points.

Georgia State’s attack has been pretty good with redshirt freshman quarterback Cornelious Brown at the controls. Brown hasn’t been great at 60% completions, 6.0 yppp and with 3 picks, but the rushing attack has been pretty good at 246 yards per game at 5.2 yards per rushing play – although you can’t expect the end-arounds by Terrance Dixon to continue to gain 26 yards a pop (78 yards on 3 runs), so those numbers are inflated. Overall, Georgia State’s attack has been below average (5.6 yards per play against two teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average offense) and I rate at 0.4 yppl worse than average. Arkansas State has had trouble defending the pass (7.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense) but the Red Wolves have been very good defending the run (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) and Georgia State has run the ball 58% of the time so far this season.

My ratings favor Arkansas State by 3.5 points with a total of 73 points, so the line looks right to me – although Georgia State and under would be the way to go if the Panthers’ pass defense really is as improved as they’ve shown so far.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Georgia St.
  • Arkansas St.


  • Run Plays 47.0 30.0
  • Run Yards 237.0 144.5
  • YPRP 5.2 5.5


  • Pass Comp 20.0 25.0
  • Pass Att 33.5 44.5
  • Comp % 59.7% 56.2%
  • Pass Yards 217.0 260.5
  • Sacks 1.0 2.5
  • Sack Yards 8.5 20.0
  • Sack % 2.9% 5.3%
  • Pass Plays 34.5 47.0
  • Net Pass Yards 208.5 240.5
  • YPPP 6.0 5.1


  • Total Plays 81.5 77.0
  • Total Yards 454.0 405.0
  • YPPL 5.6 5.3


  • Int 1.5 2.5
  • Int % 4.5% 5.6%
  • Fumbles 1.0 0.0
  • Turnovers 2.5 2.5
  • Points 40.0 31.5
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