Game Analysis

Lean – Sam Houston State (+6)  23   Georgia Southern  24

This line is up to Georgia Southern by 6 points (instead of the 2 points it would have been under normal circumstances) because of the high number of Sam Houston State players entering the transfer portal after head coach KC Keeler took the Temple job. However, the rumors are that most of those players are really excited about playing in Sam Houston’s first ever bowl game. The Bowl depth chart shows a couple of players that entered the portal not listed (backup QB Bauer and a reserve DE) but the rest of those intending to transfer are listed on the depth chart, which obviously has been updated given the absence of a couple of players. So, I’ll assume they’re playing if they’re on the depth chart.

Sam Houston’s offense is run-heavy as the Bearkats averaged over 200 ground yards per game at 5.1 yards per rushing play and only 149 pass play yards per game at 5.2 yards per pass play (5.3 yppp with Watson at QB). The Sam Houston attack should work at least as good as normal against a Georgia Southern defense that allowed 6.0 yprp this season. That number was skewed by the 375 yards at 11.7 yprp that they gave up to Boise State in their opener and I’ve taken that game out since it was an obvious outlier. However, the Eagles were still 0.4 yprp worse than average and they’re 0.7 yards per pass play worse than average defensively overall. The Eagles’ defense is better than the Bearkats’ offense, but SHSU should score around their season average of 23 points given that Georgia Southern’s defense is almost identical in yprp and yppp to the average defense that Sam Houston faced this season.

Georgia Southern’s offense was 0.5 yards per play worse than average in the regular season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and they’ll likely struggle against a Sam Houston defense that was 0.5 yppl better than average, yielding just 4.8 yppl and 20.0 points per game to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. I rate that unit at 0.4 yppl better than average for this season if all the players on the depth chart play and project just 322 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Eagles even with perfect dome conditions factored in.

Sam Houston rates as the better team overall from the line of scrimmage but the Bearkats easily had the worse special teams units in the nation this season and overall the math favors Georgia Southern by 2.7 points. Once again, that’s assuming the players on the updated bowl depth chart will play. There is obviously a chance that some of them won’t play but Sam Houston applies to my best Bowl situation – a 77-15-1 ATS underdog angle. They also apply to a 70-27-2 ATS bowl underdog with a good defense situation and teams that apply to both of those are 15-0 ATS since 1980. Sam Houston was also just 3-9 last season and teams that lost 9 or more games the previous season tend to be very appreciative and focused for their bowl game. The Bearkats apply to a 56-16 ATS bowl situation that plays on teams that lost 9 or more games the previous season and the pride brought on by making the schools first ever bowl is likely the thing that will lead to some or all of the Sam Houston transfers playing in this game – much like the situation with James Madison last season when all of their transfers played in that school’s first ever bowl game.

If I knew for sure that Sam Houston’s transfers were all playing I’d have made them a Best Bet or Strong Opinion in this game. The situation alone is worth a Lean even if the line of Georgia Southern by 6 turns out to be the true line.