Game Analysis

STRONG OPINION – UNDER (47.5) – E. Michigan (+3/+3.5) 21   Geo Southern  20

Eastern Michigan is a good defensive team that is even better when you only include the games played with Jaylen Pickett, Brody Hoying, and Maxx Crosby, who all missed games early in the season. From week 4 on that trio wreaked havoc on opposing offenses (combined for 37.5 tackles for loss) and Eastern Michigan allowed just 21.4 points per game and only 4.4 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average FBS defense). That defense will be up against a Georgia Southern option offense that has averaged an impressive 30.6 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. However, the Eagles have faced teams that would allow 34.2 points per game and 6.2 yppl to an average offensive team so Georgia Southern is not as good as their raw stats reflect. Eastern Michigan has already faced an otion team this season in Army, which will help with preparation, and the Eagles did a decent job in holding Army to 5.2 yards per play. They really shut down the running part of the option that day (just 4.0 yards per rushing play) but gave up some big pass plays, which is something that they are likely to improve upon.

Georgia Southern’s defense also has an advantage in this game, as the Eagles have been just 0.1 yards per play worse than average defensively while allowing just 23.0 points per game, while Eastern Michigan’s offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team).

Both of these teams also play at a slow pace, as Georgia Southern averages just 1.82 plays per minute of possession while Eastern Michigan plays at a below average pace of 2.27 plays per minute. My math model projects only 120 total plays in this game (excluding kneel downs and QB spikes) an for the teams to combine for only 5.2 yards per play. That would most likely produce a game well below the posted Over/Under (the math projects 40.5 points) and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 47 points or higher (a lean Under with the total lower than 47 points).

The math also likes Eastern Michigan here, as the Eagles are underrated defensively (because they weren’t as good in the 3 games when any of their 3 star defenders were out) and Georgia Southern is overrated due to a randomly good +22 turnover margin. The Eagles are likely to be positive in turnovers because they don’t throw the ball that often but most of that +22 is simply good fortune and they’re only projected to be +0.64 turnovers in this game. I also like Eastern Michigan as an underdog given their 17-2-1 ATS mark in their last 20 games as an underdog or pick. I’ll lean with Eastern Michigan.