Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – APPALACHIAN STATE (-5.5 -105)  39   Georgia Southern  27

Georgia Southern came into the season overrated based on my ratings and the Eagles have covered the spread in just 2 of 7 games against FBS opponents and are unlikely to cover the number in this game.

The Eagles are decent offensively by Sun Belt standards, rating at 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) but Appalachian State’s defense is a bit better at just 0.3 yppl worse than average.

The issue for Georgia Southern is a defense that’s allowed an average of 7.0 yppl this to FBS opponents season and rates at 1.3 yppl worse than average even after excluding the negative outlier against USC (11.2 yppl allowed). Appalachian rates at just 0.2 yppl worse than average with either AJ Swann or JJ Kohl at quarterback (they rate the same) and the offense is underrated by the market due to the 2.5 yards per pass play on 46 pass plays by the 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks.

I project Appalachian State with over 500 total yards and nearly 7 yards per play while the Eagles are projected to gain just 385 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game. It also doesn’t hurt that Georgia Southern tends to play worse on the road, as the Eagles are 8-16 ATS away from home (0-4 ATS this season) compared to 15-5-1 ATS at home under coach Helton.

Appalachian State is a Strong Opinion at -6.5 or less.