Game Analysis

Georgia (-7.5)  31   Cincinnati  23

Georgia would have had a very good shot at a playoff spot had USC transfer quarterback J.T. Daniels been cleared to play earlier in the season and All-SEC safety Richard Lecounte had not been in a motorcycle accident that kept him out of the last 4 games. Georgia’s defense was among the best in the nation in 5 games with Lecounte, rating at 2.1 yards per play better than average (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defensive team), and the Bulldogs have been just 1.0 yppl better than average in 4 games without Lecounte, who has been practicing the last few weeks and could play some in this game. Regardless, the defense won’t be in top form without starters LB Monty Rice, CB Eric Stokes (leads the team in interceptions and passes defended) and LB Jermaine Johnson (#2 on the team with 5 sacks).

Daniels was cleared to play in mid-November and started the team’s final 3 games while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 9.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). The other two Georgia quarterbacks combined for 53% completions and 6.1 yppp and having Daniels all season, to go along with a strong rushing attack, would have made the Bulldogs elite offensively (they averaged 41.7 points and 7.8 yppl in Daniels’ 3 starts). Georgia’s only loss aside from Alabama was against Florida in a game in which they had neither Daniels or Lecounte and I would have favored the Bulldogs to win that game if both were playing – and a win would have given the Bulldogs a good shot at a playoff spot ahead of Notre Dame, who I’d favor Georgia against now even without Lecounte.

Cincinnati enters this game unbeaten and some are griping about the Bearcats not being more seriously considered for a playoff spot. The fact that they are underdogs of more than a touchdown in this game is certainly an indication that they don’t belong in the playoffs. Cincinnati is a good team, as they have been 16.3 points better than an average FBS team this season, but they’re not close to being good enough to be included in the top 4.

Cincy’s defense is certainly good enough, as the Bearcats have been 1.4 yards per play better than average on that side of the ball, which ranks 4^th best in the nation (Georgia’s defense was #2 for the season). The Bearcats have a good offense that averaged 39.3 points and 6.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offense but they are no better offensively than the average attack the Georgia faced this season playing an SEC only schedule.

My math favors Georgia by 8.2 points with some chance given that Lecounte will play and adjusted for the missing defenders and RB James Cook being out, but the value would be slightly on the side of Cincinnati if Lecounte doesn’t play at all. I’ll pass.