Game Analysis

Georgia (-3.5)  22   Baylor  17

This game should be a defensive battle despite being played in perfect dome conditions. Georgia is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, as the Bulldogs have yielded just 12.1 points per game and 4.3 yards per play to a schedule of FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. Baylor is good offensively (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) but the math projects just 297 total yards at 4.9 yppl for the Bears tonight.

Baylor is nearly as good as Georgia on defense, as the Bears surrendered just 19.3 points and 4.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average stop unit. Georgia was 0.9 yppl better than average offensively this season but the Bulldogs won’t be nearly that good heading into this game without their two most valuable receivers. Lawrence Cager has been out for a few games and remains out while Dominick Blaylock tore his ACL is also out for the Bulldogs. Those two combined to average 11.4 yards on 69 targets this season while the rest of the wide receivers combined for just 6.9 yards per target, which equates to a drop of 0.8 yards per pass play. NFL bound offensive tackle Andrew Thomas is sitting out and he’s considered a top 10 overall pick and the top tackle in the draft, so Baylor’s strong pass rush (3.3 sacks per game) should be able to get to Jake Fromm in this game. Georgia allowed just 3 total sacks in the first 7 games against FBS opponents this season but the Bulldogs gave up 9 sacks in their last 5 games and that trend will likely continue with Thomas out. Georgia’s aerial attack mostly struggled against good pass defenses this season, especially down the stretch without Cager, and I project just 5.0 yards per pass play for Fromm in this game, even in the perfect conditions for passing. Overall, I project just 331 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Bulldogs in this game.

The math favors Georgia by 5 points with a total of 39.7 points. Baylor coach Matt Rhule is 35-13 ATS as an underdog in his career, including 9 consecutive spread wins with this Baylor team. However, Baylor also applies to a 27-81-1 ATS bowl situation and teams that have covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games heading into their bowl game are just 2-19-1 ATS in their bowl. I’ll pass on this game.