Game Analysis

Georgia (-1.5) vs Alabama

My math model favors Georgia by 1.6 points with 48.0 total points.

Alabama shook off an opening week loss to Florida State by winning 10 of their last 11 games, including a 24-21 win at Georgia. The Crimson Tide are good offensively , as their 5.8 yards per play against FBS opponents (with Ty Simpson in the game) came against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average FBS offense. Alabama’s defense has been 1.0 yppl better than average, yielding just 5.2 yppl (excluding garbage time) to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense.

Georgia rates about the same, as the Bulldogs were just 0.5 yppl better than average on offense this season but have been 1.3 yppl better than average on the defensive side of the ball (5.0 yppl allowed with starters in the game against teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average team).

Georgia averaged 6.7 yppl and allowed just 5.3 yppl in their regular season meeting with Alabama but the Tide ran 22 more plays from scrimmage (excluding kneel downs) because they were able to convert 13 of 19 3rd-down chances while Georgia got a first-down on just 2 of 8 3rd-down plays. It’s highly unlikely that Bama will have such an extreme advantage in 3rd-downs this time around and my math favors Georgia by 1.6 points with 48.0 total points.