Game Analysis
Lean – Under (41) – Fresno State (-10.5) 23 AIR FORCE 10
Air Force has faced 3 really bad defensive teams (Merrimack, Wyoming, and New Mexico) and the Falcons scored an average of 25.7 points in those games. They’ve averaged only 6.6 points in their other 5 games and Fresno has a defense that’s been 0.8 yards per play better than average and defends the run well.
Fresno’s offense, meanwhile, has averaged only 5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offense and Air Force is better defensively than the average unit the Bulldogs have faced.
These teams are a combined 11-6 Under this season and my model likes the under in this one.
The Under is a Lean at 40 points or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.7
29.7
-
Run Yards
121.9
147.0
-
YPRP
4.0
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.1
20.1
-
Pass Att
33.7
37.7
-
Comp %
68.6%
53.4%
-
Pass Yards
248.4
214.7
-
Sacks
2.2
1.8
-
Sack Yards
19.2
13.9
-
Sack %
6.2%
4.5%
-
Pass Plays
35.9
39.5
-
Net Pass Yards
229.2
200.8
-
YPPP
6.4
5.1
Total
-
Total Plays
66.6
69.1
-
Total Yards
351.1
347.8
-
YPPL
5.3
5.0
TO
-
Int
1.1
1.4
-
Int %
3.3%
3.8%
-
Fumbles
0.1
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.2
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
48.6
36.4
-
Run Yards
200.8
198.3
-
YPRP
4.1
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
6.4
13.6
-
Pass Att
15.0
21.8
-
Comp %
42.5%
62.7%
-
Pass Yards
92.8
167.6
-
Sacks
2.0
0.8
-
Sack Yards
12.8
4.9
-
Sack %
11.8%
3.3%
-
Pass Plays
17.0
22.5
-
Net Pass Yards
80.0
162.8
-
YPPP
4.7
7.2
Total
-
Total Plays
65.6
58.9
-
Total Yards
280.8
361.0
-
YPPL
4.3
6.1
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.1
-
Int %
7.5%
0.6%
-
Fumbles
0.5
1.0
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 @ Michigan |
10-30 |
+21.0
W
|
19/32 |
39/160 |
2.1/5.0 |
0/0 |
22/16 |
36/27 |
205/112 |
2/1 |
3/1 |
5.3/4.0 |
244/272 |
4.2/4.5 |
| 09/07/24 Sacramento State |
46-30 |
0.0
W
|
42/25 |
172/114 |
4.1/4.6 |
1/2 |
24/22 |
35/50 |
311/261 |
2/1 |
1/1 |
8.6/5.1 |
483/375 |
6.2/4.9 |
| 09/14/24 New Mexico St. |
48-0 |
-19.5
W
|
42/30 |
227/97 |
5.4/3.2 |
0/0 |
14/13 |
25/29 |
237/93 |
0/3 |
1/2 |
9.1/3.0 |
464/190 |
6.8/3.1 |
| 09/21/24 @ New Mexico |
38-21 |
-13.0
W
|
31/28 |
103/145 |
3.3/5.2 |
0/1 |
27/33 |
34/53 |
248/338 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
7.1/6.4 |
351/483 |
5.3/6.0 |
| 09/28/24 @ UNLV |
14-59 |
+1.5
L
|
27/39 |
74/252 |
2.7/6.5 |
0/0 |
29/14 |
45/17 |
312/198 |
2/0 |
4/0 |
6.4/11.6 |
386/450 |
5.1/8.0 |
| 10/12/24 Washington St. |
17-25 |
+3.5
L
|
25/30 |
142/152 |
5.7/5.1 |
0/1 |
24/17 |
36/35 |
196/144 |
2/1 |
2/4 |
5.2/3.7 |
338/296 |
5.4/4.3 |
| 10/18/24 @ Nevada |
24-21 |
-3.0
T
|
36/33 |
145/146 |
4.0/4.4 |
0/0 |
13/16 |
20/25 |
171/177 |
1/0 |
2/4 |
7.8/6.1 |
316/323 |
5.4/5.2 |
| 10/26/24 San Jose St. |
33-10 |
-4.5
W
|
37/16 |
148/126 |
4.0/7.9 |
0/0 |
30/21 |
41/50 |
254/261 |
1/4 |
2/2 |
5.9/5.0 |
402/387 |
5.0/5.7 |
| 11/02/24 Hawaii |
20-21 |
-12.0
L
|
17/34 |
47/131 |
2.8/3.9 |
0/1 |
25/29 |
31/53 |
129/223 |
0/1 |
4/2 |
3.7/4.1 |
176/354 |
3.4/4.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 Merrimack |
21-6 |
0.0
W
|
55/26 |
169/117 |
3.1/4.5 |
0/3 |
6/17 |
14/30 |
71/98 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
5.1/3.2 |
240/215 |
3.5/3.8 |
| 09/07/24 San Jose St. |
7-17 |
-3.5
L
|
45/29 |
155/78 |
3.4/2.7 |
0/0 |
6/17 |
19/33 |
32/241 |
2/1 |
0/2 |
1.7/6.9 |
187/319 |
2.9/5.0 |
| 09/14/24 @ Baylor |
3-31 |
+17.0
L
|
56/37 |
195/230 |
3.5/6.2 |
2/3 |
2/18 |
8/24 |
25/242 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
3.1/9.7 |
220/472 |
3.4/7.6 |
| 09/28/24 @ Wyoming |
19-31 |
-4.0
L
|
44/37 |
226/190 |
5.1/5.1 |
0/0 |
6/16 |
13/22 |
96/188 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
6.4/8.5 |
322/378 |
5.5/6.4 |
| 10/05/24 Navy |
7-34 |
+9.5
L
|
45/47 |
184/295 |
4.1/6.3 |
0/0 |
5/9 |
9/15 |
97/134 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
8.8/8.9 |
281/429 |
5.0/6.9 |
| 10/12/24 @ New Mexico |
37-52 |
+4.5
L
|
61/38 |
329/249 |
5.4/6.6 |
1/0 |
6/15 |
11/20 |
110/178 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
8.5/8.5 |
439/427 |
5.9/7.2 |
| 10/19/24 Colorado St. |
13-21 |
+6.5
L
|
49/36 |
194/206 |
4.0/5.7 |
1/2 |
10/12 |
26/22 |
154/181 |
2/0 |
4/0 |
5.1/8.2 |
348/387 |
4.4/6.7 |
| 11/02/24 @ Army |
3-20 |
+18.0
W
|
34/41 |
154/221 |
4.5/5.4 |
0/0 |
10/5 |
20/8 |
55/40 |
3/0 |
6/1 |
2.1/4.4 |
209/261 |
3.5/5.2 |
Fresno St.
@ 
Air Force