Game Analysis

Florida (-14.5)  35   Virginia  21

Despite making it to the ACC Championship game, Virginia is a pretty mediocre team. The Cavaliers are just 0.2 yards per play better than average on offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Cavaliers are worse than average defensively without injured All-American CB Bryce Hall. The Cavs were good defensively with Hall, but his week 7 injury derailed the defense, which gave up 6.5 yards per play in 7 games without Hall – to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida’s offense averaged 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average offense) in the 9 games that Kyle Trask started at quarterback after Feleipe Franks was injured. The Gators don’t have much of a rushing attack but Trask was very good, averaging 7.4 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Trask is projected to average 8.9 yppp in this game against a Cavaliers’ secondary without their star cornerback. Overall the math projects 454 yards at 7.2 yards per play for the Gators in this game.

Virginia’s mediocre offense will have a difficult task trying to keep up against a Gators’ defense that allowed just 14.4 points per game and only 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. The absence of NFL prospect CB C.J. Henderson hurts the pass defense (he’s worth about a point based on my algorithm) but I still project just 334 yards at 5.2 yppl for the Cavaliers in this game.

Overall, the math favors Florida by 14 points with a total of 56.3 points and I recommend passing on this game.