Game Analysis

MIAMI-FLORIDA (-3)  30   Florida State  26

Miami has looked very good so far this season, as they’ve dominated their three FBS opponents by an average score of 39-14 while averaging 8.0 yards per play and allowing just 4.0 yppl. Two of those games were against decent teams Appalachian State, who went to overtime at Tennessee, and Georgia Tech so it’s not like the Hurricanes have been padding their stats by playing only bad teams. However, Florida State is by far the most talented team that Miami has faced and this should prove to be a test.

The Seminoles have faced a tough schedule of teams that include Ole’ Miss, Louisville, South Florida, and North Carolina and their numbers don’t look particularly good. However, their much-maligned defense that has allowed an average of 42 points in 4 games against FBS competition is actually only 0.2 yards per play worse than average after compensating for the high quality of offensive units they’ve faced. Miami, however, is projected to gain 416 yards at 7.4 yppl in this game with a number of big plays expected from the arm of Brad Kaaya.

The big test for Miami will be defending a Florida State offense that has averaged 512 yards at 6.6 yppl despite facing a schedule that would allow just 5.4 yppl to an average offense. Miami’s defense has been even better than the Florida State offense so far, allowing just 4.0 yppl to 3 FBS teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team, and the math model projects just 372 yards at 4.9 yppl for the ‘Noles.

While the projected yards per play strongly favors Miami the math only favors the Hurricanes by 6 ½ points because Florida State is projected to run significantly more plays from scrimmage (Miami’s big plays lead to fewer plays from their offense) and the Seminoles have a big advantage on special teams. While the math favors Miami to cover the spread I am going to pass on this game because Florida State applies to a very good 86-21-1 ATS underdog bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss to North Carolina.