Game Analysis

Arizona State (-3.5)  29   Florida State  23

Florida State will be without top running back Cam Akers, NFL prospect CB Stanford Samuels and talented DT Marvin Wilson (injured). However, the losses are worse for Arizona State, who will be without RB Eno Benjamin, top receiver Brandon Aiyuk and both coordinators. The losses hurt ASU a bit more, as Aiyuk caught passes for 1192 yards and averaged 11.5 yards per target, which is significantly better than the 8.5 YPT that the rest of the Sun Devils’ wide receivers combined to average. Arizona State’s offense was 0.3 yards per play better than average this season but I know rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average. Devils’ freshman QB Jayden Daniels should still have success against a Florida State pass defense that was just 0.3 yards per pass play better than average this season and is now without two of their top defenders. Wilson led the team in sacks despite playing just 5 games while Samuels was #2 on the Seminoles in passes defended and is considered a solid NFL prospect. FSU defends the run very well but the pass defense rates a bit worse than average after an adjustment and overall the Noles’ defense rates at 0.2 yards per play better than average. I project 391 total yards at a sub-par 5.3 yppl for the Sun Devils in this game but they would improve on that prediction if they decided to throw the ball a lot more often without Benjamin than they normally do.

Florida State’s offense was 0.1 yppl worse than average during the regular season and was average with quarterback James Blackmon behind center. Losing Akers isn’t that big of a deal given his 5.0 ypr wasn’t significantly higher than the 4.7 ypr of backup Khalan Laborn and the Seminoles are projected to gain 377 yards at 5.5 yppl against an Arizona State defense that’s really good defending the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defense) but is just average against the pass. Florida State tends to throw more than they run it and Blackmon should post solid numbers in this game (7.0 yards per pass play projected).

Overall, the math favors ASU by 5.8 points with 51.4 total points after adjusting for the absent players on both sides of the ball but there is a lot of variance in that projection and it’s unknown how not having the OC and DC will affect ASU in this game. I’ll pass.