Game Analysis
Florida (-5) 23 SOUTH CAROLINA 22
South Carolina was impressive in their huge upset win over Georgia last week and Florida might also be in a letdown spot after their playoff dreams were shot down by LSU. The Gamecocks are actually not that much worse than what appears to be an overrated Florida team that 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and 0.7 yppl better than average on defense after adjusting for the variance in their LSU performance (10.9 yppl allowed).
South Carolina has been average offensively with Ryan Hilinski at quarterback (since week 2) but the Gamecocks are 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, as they 5.8 yppl that they’ve allowed has come against FBS teams that would combine to average 6.8 yppl against an average defensive team.
Florida doesn’t really have much of an advantage overall from the line of scrimmage and my math favors the Gators by just 0.7 points here in Columbia (by 2 points if South Carolina’s top receiver Bryan Edwards doesn’t play (he left the Georgia game and is questionable as of Friday).
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.8
29.8
-
Run Yards
201.1
134.3
-
YPRP
5.5
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.7
17.8
-
Pass Att
29.5
30.1
-
Comp %
63.3%
59.0%
-
Pass Yards
228.7
204.0
-
Sacks
1.6
3.5
-
Sack Yards
10.8
19.9
-
Sack %
5.0%
10.4%
-
Pass Plays
31.1
33.6
-
Net Pass Yards
218.0
184.1
-
YPPP
7.0
5.5
Total
-
Total Plays
69.9
63.4
-
Total Yards
429.9
338.3
-
YPPL
6.1
5.3
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.2
-
Int %
2.1%
4.0%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.6
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.8
41.7
-
Run Yards
132.2
217.0
-
YPRP
4.9
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.4
22.5
-
Pass Att
34.0
36.0
-
Comp %
57.2%
62.5%
-
Pass Yards
254.2
263.6
-
Sacks
2.1
2.3
-
Sack Yards
14.7
12.8
-
Sack %
5.7%
6.0%
-
Pass Plays
36.0
38.2
-
Net Pass Yards
239.5
250.8
-
YPPP
6.7
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
65.8
80.0
-
Total Yards
386.4
480.6
-
YPPL
5.9
6.0
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.4
-
Int %
2.8%
1.2%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/29/18 @ Mississippi St. |
13-6 |
+7.0
W
|
31/26 |
136/143 |
4.4/5.5 |
0/0 |
23/11 |
32/26 |
229/59 |
1/0 |
1/6 |
6.9/1.8 |
365/202 |
5.7/3.5 |
| 10/06/18 LSU |
27-19 |
+3.0
W
|
41/36 |
217/208 |
5.3/5.8 |
0/1 |
13/19 |
28/34 |
176/161 |
1/2 |
0/5 |
6.3/4.1 |
393/369 |
5.7/4.9 |
| 10/13/18 @ Vanderbilt |
37-27 |
-7.5
W
|
60/21 |
344/119 |
5.7/5.7 |
2/0 |
19/18 |
29/36 |
269/217 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
8.7/5.9 |
613/336 |
6.7/5.8 |
| 10/27/18 @ Georgia |
17-36 |
+6.5
L
|
36/39 |
181/195 |
5.0/5.0 |
2/0 |
13/17 |
21/24 |
99/235 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
4.5/9.4 |
280/430 |
4.8/6.7 |
| 11/03/18 Missouri |
17-38 |
-6.5
L
|
27/40 |
126/225 |
4.7/5.6 |
0/0 |
19/24 |
40/32 |
197/248 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
4.8/7.5 |
323/473 |
4.8/6.5 |
| 11/10/18 South Carolina |
35-31 |
-6.5
L
|
57/33 |
395/158 |
6.9/4.8 |
1/0 |
15/18 |
21/28 |
147/230 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
6.4/7.7 |
542/388 |
6.8/6.2 |
| 11/17/18 Idaho |
63-10 |
0.0
W
|
34/31 |
212/161 |
6.2/5.2 |
1/0 |
31/13 |
43/35 |
394/66 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
9.0/1.8 |
606/227 |
7.8/3.3 |
| 11/24/18 @ Florida St. |
41-14 |
-7.5
W
|
49/30 |
285/155 |
5.8/5.2 |
0/1 |
16/14 |
26/30 |
250/136 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
9.3/3.9 |
535/291 |
7.0/4.5 |
| 12/29/18 @ Michigan |
41-15 |
+6.0
W
|
36/24 |
275/107 |
7.6/4.5 |
0/0 |
14/23 |
24/37 |
153/217 |
0/2 |
3/6 |
5.7/5.0 |
428/324 |
6.8/4.8 |
| 08/24/19 Miami Fla |
24-20 |
+7.0
W
|
26/26 |
74/137 |
2.8/5.3 |
2/1 |
17/19 |
27/30 |
245/154 |
2/0 |
1/10 |
8.8/3.9 |
319/291 |
5.9/4.4 |
| 09/07/19 Tennessee-Martin |
45-0 |
0.0
W
|
37/21 |
189/47 |
5.1/2.2 |
0/0 |
31/15 |
36/23 |
356/116 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
9.6/4.1 |
545/163 |
7.4/3.3 |
| 09/14/19 @ Kentucky |
29-21 |
-9.0
L
|
25/40 |
72/151 |
2.9/3.8 |
1/1 |
21/23 |
30/35 |
295/259 |
1/3 |
1/1 |
9.5/7.2 |
367/410 |
6.6/5.4 |
| 09/21/19 Tennessee |
34-3 |
-14.0
W
|
35/23 |
143/97 |
4.1/4.2 |
1/1 |
24/14 |
34/28 |
304/142 |
2/3 |
2/4 |
8.4/4.4 |
447/239 |
6.3/4.3 |
| 09/28/19 Towson |
38-0 |
0.0
W
|
29/23 |
149/124 |
5.1/5.4 |
0/1 |
24/18 |
28/32 |
241/146 |
0/2 |
3/4 |
7.8/4.1 |
390/270 |
6.5/4.6 |
| 10/05/19 Auburn |
24-13 |
+3.0
W
|
29/32 |
166/152 |
5.7/4.8 |
4/1 |
25/11 |
39/27 |
238/117 |
0/3 |
4/2 |
5.5/4.0 |
404/269 |
5.6/4.4 |
| 10/12/19 @ LSU |
28-42 |
+14.0
T
|
38/23 |
163/219 |
4.3/9.5 |
0/0 |
24/21 |
43/24 |
294/293 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
6.5/12.2 |
457/512 |
5.5/10.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 Missouri |
37-35 |
+1.5
W
|
46/43 |
138/306 |
3.0/7.1 |
1/0 |
20/17 |
35/36 |
240/201 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
6.7/5.4 |
378/507 |
4.6/6.3 |
| 10/13/18 Texas A&M |
23-26 |
+2.5
L
|
17/35 |
86/139 |
5.1/4.0 |
1/0 |
17/25 |
35/37 |
213/338 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
5.9/8.7 |
299/477 |
5.6/6.4 |
| 10/27/18 Tennessee |
27-24 |
-8.5
L
|
38/31 |
240/151 |
6.3/4.9 |
0/0 |
11/27 |
16/39 |
144/202 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
8.5/4.9 |
384/353 |
7.0/4.9 |
| 11/03/18 @ Mississippi |
48-44 |
0.0
W
|
31/46 |
168/267 |
5.4/5.8 |
0/1 |
22/31 |
32/48 |
351/362 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
10.3/7.1 |
519/629 |
8.0/6.5 |
| 11/10/18 @ Florida |
31-35 |
+6.5
W
|
33/57 |
158/395 |
4.8/6.9 |
0/1 |
18/15 |
28/21 |
230/147 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
7.7/6.4 |
388/542 |
6.2/6.8 |
| 11/17/18 Chattanooga |
49-9 |
0.0
W
|
40/22 |
253/98 |
6.3/4.5 |
0/1 |
29/18 |
36/37 |
349/238 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
9.2/6.1 |
602/336 |
7.7/5.5 |
| 11/24/18 @ Clemson |
35-56 |
+26.0
W
|
21/55 |
111/357 |
5.3/6.5 |
0/1 |
32/27 |
50/36 |
490/393 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
9.2/10.9 |
601/750 |
8.1/8.2 |
| 12/01/18 Akron |
28-3 |
-29.5
L
|
36/34 |
204/134 |
5.7/3.9 |
2/3 |
14/19 |
27/39 |
177/155 |
2/0 |
2/5 |
6.1/3.5 |
381/289 |
5.9/3.7 |
| 12/29/18 @ Virginia |
0-28 |
-4.5
L
|
16/46 |
70/210 |
4.4/4.6 |
0/1 |
17/22 |
40/31 |
196/203 |
2/0 |
3/2 |
4.6/6.2 |
266/413 |
4.5/5.2 |
| 08/31/19 @ North Carolina |
20-24 |
-11.0
L
|
27/46 |
148/267 |
5.5/5.8 |
0/1 |
16/15 |
30/24 |
123/221 |
2/0 |
3/3 |
3.7/8.2 |
271/488 |
4.5/6.7 |
| 09/07/19 Charleston Southern |
72-10 |
0.0
W
|
38/22 |
491/80 |
12.9/3.6 |
1/0 |
25/23 |
31/46 |
282/135 |
1/3 |
0/1 |
9.1/2.9 |
773/215 |
11.2/3.1 |
| 09/14/19 Alabama |
23-47 |
+25.5
W
|
26/22 |
142/89 |
5.5/4.0 |
1/0 |
36/31 |
57/39 |
308/483 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
5.1/11.8 |
450/572 |
5.2/9.1 |
| 09/21/19 @ Missouri |
14-34 |
+9.5
L
|
19/50 |
46/215 |
2.4/4.3 |
2/1 |
18/19 |
41/33 |
236/214 |
1/1 |
4/2 |
5.2/6.1 |
282/429 |
4.4/5.0 |
| 09/28/19 Kentucky |
24-7 |
-3.0
W
|
42/24 |
258/152 |
6.1/6.3 |
1/1 |
15/13 |
27/34 |
125/63 |
0/1 |
3/4 |
4.2/1.7 |
383/215 |
5.3/3.5 |
| 10/12/19 @ Georgia |
20-17 |
+21.5
W
|
36/40 |
142/184 |
3.9/4.6 |
0/1 |
21/28 |
32/51 |
155/284 |
0/3 |
0/3 |
4.8/5.3 |
297/468 |
4.4/5.0 |
South Carolina