Florida vs


at Arlington
Wed, Dec 30
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 315
Odds: Oklahoma -3, Total: 68

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (68) – Oklahoma (-3.5)  34   Florida  28

Oklahoma has been one of the best teams in the nation since starting the season 1-2 with close losses to Kansas State and Iowa State. The absence of top running back Rhamondre Stevenson and DE Ronnie Perkins in the Sooners’ first 4 games may have cost them a chance at a National Championship, as the Sooners have been dominating in the 5 games that those two stars have played in. Oklahoma has outscored their opponents by an average score of 43.8 to 17.0 points while outgaining those teams 6.9 yards per play to 4.4 ypp. That includes wins over good teams Oklahoma State (41-13) and Iowa State (27-21).

Oklahoma allowed 7.2 yards per play in their first two games against FBS opponents due to some big pass plays allowed (19.9 yards per reception allowed to Kansas State and Iowa State) but the secondary has tightened up since then (just 10.8 ypc in their last 7 games) and the pass rush had become dominant since Perkins began playing. Perkins has 5.5 sacks in 5 games, joining Isaiah Thomas (0.8 sacks per game) and Nik Bonitto (0.83 sacks per game) to give the Sooners a trio that is tough to stop. Oklahoma has averaged 4.2 sacks in 5 games with Perkins while the defense has yielded just 4.4 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defense) and 4.4 yppl (to teams that would average 5.7 yppl). The Sooners’ defense has actually been 1.3 yppl better than average over the 7 games since that second loss, so they started playing well before Perkins’ suspension was lifted.

Florida’s offense has been among the very best in the nation this season, averaging 41.6 points and over 500 yards per game at 7.5 yards per play (when the starting QB Kyle Trask was in the game) against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. However, the Gators’ top 4 receivers have all opted out to pursue their NFL careers and Jacob Copeland, Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, and TE Kyle Pitts combined for 2778 yards at 10.9 yards per target. The wide receivers and tight ends that are likely to play in this game combined for 8.5 yards per target, which equates to a difference of 1.4 yards per pass play and about 5 points per game. Oklahoma’s defense has a slight edge over a Florida attack devoid of their best receivers and without a good ground game (just 4.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team). I project a modest 5.7 yppl for the Gators in this game.

Oklahoma’s offense has been 1.2 yppl better than average for the season (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and the Sooners are +1.3 yppl with Stevenson, who averaged 96 yards per game at 5.8 ypr while the next two backs combined for 4.9 ypr and don’t play as much now. T.J. Pledger won’t play in this game, but his 4.7 ypr is the worst of the 3 top backs. Florida’s defense has 0.6 yppl better than average and I project 6.4 yppl for the Sooners in this game.

While both teams are high-scoring teams they both run their offense at a slower than average tempo and I only expect 131 total plays to be run (excluding spikes and kneel downs). That’s not a lot of plays to get to nearly 70 points and I would have projected only 66 points before adjusting for Florida’s 4 top receivers not playing. The under was nearly a Strong Opinion and there is some value on Oklahoma as a side.


  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Florida
  • Oklahoma


  • Run Plays 27.6 33.9
  • Run Yards 121.6 150.1
  • YPRP 4.8 5.0


  • Pass Comp 27.0 21.9
  • Pass Att 38.9 33.7
  • Comp % 69.4% 65.0%
  • Pass Yards 393.5 257.1
  • Sacks 1.7 3.0
  • Sack Yards 9.8 19.8
  • Sack % 4.3% 8.2%
  • Pass Plays 40.6 36.7
  • Net Pass Yards 383.6 237.3
  • YPPP 9.4 6.5


  • Total Plays 68.3 70.6
  • Total Yards 515.0 407.2
  • YPPL 7.5 5.8


  • Int 0.6 0.8
  • Int % 1.4% 2.4%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.4 1.3
  • Points 41.6 28.6
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