Florida Atl. @

Old Dominion

Sat, Nov 13
ESPN Networks
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 183
Odds: Old Dominion +7, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – OLD DOMINION (+7)  23   Florida Atlantic  24

Old Dominion won straight up for us as a Best Bet a couple of week ago and the Monarchs are still an underrated team since changing quarterbacks in week 7. Hayden Wolff isn’t good, as he’s averaged only 5.7 yppp in his 3 starts and rates at 1.4 yppp worse than average after accounting for opposing pass defenses faced, but he’s much better than D.J. Mack, who started the first 6 games for the Monarchs and was a dismal 2.2 yppp worse than average. FAU is solid defensively and I project ODU at just 351 yards at 4.7 yards per play but that should be good enough to give them a chance to win this game.

The Old Dominion defense is the reason there is value on their side, as that unit has been 0.3 yppl better than an average FBS stop unit, yielding just 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. That includes holding Wake Forest’s elite offense to just 5.4 yppl and limiting other good offensive teams Liberty, Marshall, and Western Kentucky to a combined 6.0 yppl. The reason that ODU has allowed 32 points per game is because their offense with Mack at quarterback consistently put the defense in bad field position situations.

Florida Atlantic’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with N’Kosi Perry at quarterback, as their 6.0 yppl with Perry in the game has come against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average attack. FAU has only faced 3 teams that aren’t at least 0.6 yppl worse than average and they managed to score only 14 points (Florida), 7 points (Air Force), and 13 points (Marshall) in those 3 games and the most recent two such teams are worse defensively than Old Dominion (AF and Marshall are a bit worse than average defensively). That math projects 24 points for FAU but I can certainly see them scoring significantly less than that given their struggles against other capable defensive teams.

Old Dominion didn’t play last season and their 2019 defense was had, so they were expected to have one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. That expectation (i.e. the prior) is still a part of their overall market rating, which is a big part of the reason that there is value on ODU, who is 6-3 ATS this season and now a bit better with Wolff at quarterback. Old Dominion is a Strong Opinion at +7 at -115 odds or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Florida Atl.
  • Old Dominion
FAU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 36.6 33.9
  • Run Yards 196.8 162.6
  • YPRP 5.4 4.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.7 18.0
  • Pass Att 30.0 32.4
  • Comp % 58.9% 55.5%
  • Pass Yards 237.0 223.2
  • Sacks 3.2 1.3
  • Sack Yards 16.4 8.6
  • Sack % 9.7% 3.9%
  • Pass Plays 33.2 33.8
  • Net Pass Yards 220.6 214.7
  • YPPP 6.6 6.4

Total

  • Total Plays 69.8 67.7
  • Total Yards 417.3 377.2
  • YPPL 6.0 5.6

TO


  • Int 0.4 1.2
  • Int % 1.5% 3.8%
  • Fumbles 0.9 0.3
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.6
 
  • Points 28.3 22.2
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