Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Florida Atlantic (+15.5)  29   NAVY  35

This is a very good matchup for a Florida Atlantic offense that throws the ball nearly 50 times per game and is projected to drop back to pass 64% of the time in this game. Navy has a better than average run defense, but the Midshipmen are among the worst teams in the nation defending the pass, having allowed 6.9 yards per pass play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Navy’s defense has been 0.7 yards per play worse than average overall this season, but that unit is 1.2 yppl worse than average against a team that runs pass plays 64% of the time. That’s a difference of about 3.5 points of pure line value based solely on the matchup in this game. That alone makes FAU a good bet here, but I also think that the Owls are a bit underrated while Navy has not been as good as their market rating, which has them pegged as an average team.

Navy has been just as good on offense (+0.7 yppl) as they’ve been bad on defense, but they have run fewer plays than their opponents and their overall line of scrimmage rating is -3.0 points. The Middies have also been 1.1 points per game worse than average in special teams.

I don’t expect FAU to slow down a Navy option offense that’s averaged 33.5 points and 7.9 yppl against FBS opponents this season but FAU’s defense rates at 0.3 yppl better than the average defense that Navy has faced while the Owls’ run defense rates the same as Navy’s other FBS opponents. My math model projects 34.5 points for Navy in this game.

Aside from being a great matchup for FAU’s offense, the Owls’ attack (0.5 yppl worse than average) rates as better than Navy’s defense (0.7 yppl worse than average) and the matchup adds 0.5 yppl. FAU gets a boost in the run game if RB Xavier Terrell misses a third straight game. Terrell averaged a pathetic 3.0 yards per rush as the leading ball-carrier for the Owls the first 5 games while the other running backs, Sands and Shields-Dutton have combined for a decent 5.0 ypr despite having to face South Florida’s dominating run defense last week (which Terrell didn’t).

Florida Atlantic’s fast paced attack has struggled against good defensive teams (just 20 points total against Maryland and USF), but the Owls have averaged 31.8 points in their other 4 games against FIU, Memphis, Rice, and UAB, whose collective defensive rating is the same as Navy’s overall defensive rating but are better defending the pass than Navy is.

Teams that run the option, as the military academies do, tend to be good bets as big underdogs and not good as big favorites. That makes sense given that the option is designed to lessen the impact of talent differentials – which relatively helps option teams against more talented teams but has the opposite effect against less talented teams.

Army, Navy and Air Force are just 46-71-1 ATS when favored by more than 14 points against FBS opponents going back to 1986, while being 117-84-2 ATS as an underdog of more than 14 points.

Florida Atlantic is a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and 1-Star down to +13.