Game Analysis

MEMPHIS (-28 ½)  55   East Carolina  21

1-Star Best Bet at -28 or less.

Memphis will meet UCF in the Conference USA Championship game next week but first the Tigers will look to build their confidence with a high-scoring win over an East Carolina team with a dreadfully bad defense. The Pirates have allowed 42.7 points and 531 yards per game at 7.4 yards per play to a mediocre slate of offensive teams that would combine to average 27.5 points and 5.5 yppl against an average defensive unit. East Carolina has allowed 52 points or more in 5 of their 11 games and those were all to teams with a capable offense (West Virginia, Virginia Tech, South Florida, UCF, and Houston with King at QB). Memphis has more than a capable offense, as the Tigers have averaged 44.7 points per game this season and have shown no mercy when facing a bad defensive team. Memphis scored an average of 58.3 points in 4 games against really bad defensive teams Connecticut, Tulane, Tulsa, and SMU (I excluded their 37-28 opening game against UL Monroe since that game was played in a monsoon). My model is calling for 55 points for Memphis, which is more than reasonable and perhaps on the low side given that ECU is the worst defense that Memphis has faced this season.

Memphis is better defensively than their 32.5 points per game allowed would suggest, as the Tigers rate as average in compensated yards per play. East Carolina’s offense is 0.3 yppl worse than average and my model projects 412 yards a sub-par 5.0 yppl for the Pirates in this game. Overall the math favors Memphis by 34 points and East Carolina is 0-9-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points since the beginning of last season, including an average margin of defeat of 36 points in 5 games as an underdog of more than 21 points (average line +25.2). I considered the possibility of a letdown but Memphis seems like a team that likes to bully weaker teams by running up the score. This game would qualify as a Math Play at -28 points or less and I’d play Memphis in a 1-Star Best Bet at -28 or less.